On approval of the Forecast scheme of territorial and spatial development of the country until 2030

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Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated October 9, 2019 No. 185.

In order to implement the Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025, as well as to create conditions for the growth of the welfare of the population based on the development and effective use of the socio-economic potential of each region of the country, I DECREE:

1. To approve the attached Forecast Scheme of the territorial and spatial development of the country until 2030.

2. The Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, central and local executive bodies, as well as state bodies directly subordinate and accountable to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, national management holdings, national holdings and national companies, should be guided in their activities by this Decree and take the necessary measures to implement it.

3. Control over the implementation of this Decree is entrusted to the Administration of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

4. This Decree shall enter into force from the date of its signing.

President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

K. Tokaev

Approved by Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated October 9, 2019 No. 185

FORECAST SCHEME of territorial and spatial development of the country until 2030, Astana, 2019

The footnote. Throughout the text, the words "Nur-Sultan", "Nur-Sultan", "Nur-Sultan" and "Nur-Sultan" are replaced by the words "Astana", "Astana", "Astana" and "Astana", respectively, in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated 04/13/2023 No. 195 (effective from the date of its first official publication).

content

Introduction

Section 1. Analysis and assessment of the economic potential of territories

Section 2. Directions of spatial development

Section 3. Forecast parameters of the country's development

Section 4. Schemes of prospective development of regions

The Forecast scheme for the territorial and spatial development of the country until 2030 (hereinafter referred to as the Forecast Scheme) is a strategic document of the first level of the state planning system that defines the long-term vision of the country's development.

The bases for the development of the Forecast Scheme are the Development Strategy of Kazakhstan until 2050, the Concept of Kazakhstan's entry into the top 30 most developed countries in the world.

Introduction

The forecast scheme is being developed in order to implement the Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategic Plan-2025).

The forecast scheme has been developed in accordance with the State Planning System of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Spatial planning is a state management function at all levels that determines the future distribution of economic activity and the settlement of the population in the country, and is designed to ensure the rational use of land resources, balance the needs of economic development and environmental protection.

Spatial planning makes it possible to coordinate policies in sectors such as transport, agriculture, and the environment.

Effective spatial planning is aimed at preventing duplication of efforts and activities, including those of an intersectoral nature.

Section 1. Analysis and assessment of the economic potential of territories

1.1. Analysis and assessment of the resource potential of the country's regions, provision of industrial and social infrastructure

Land, forest, and water resources

Spatial planning is aimed at ensuring the rational use of land, strengthening the link between types of land use, balancing the needs of the economy and the need to protect the environment.

The main problems of agricultural land use are the degradation of arable land, the insufficiently efficient use of irrigated land, and significant wear and tear of irrigation and drainage systems, accompanied by a deterioration in the land reclamation status.

The area of agricultural land increased by 11.4%, from 93.3 million hectares in 2010 to 104.1 million hectares in 2017.

The share of arable land in the total area of the country is 9.3%. In 2017, the area of arable land was 25.2 million hectares, an increase of 4.4% compared to 2010 (24.2 million hectares).

The area of land subject to water erosion in 2015 was 4.9 million hectares and increased 4.8 times compared to 2010 (1.0 million hectares). In 2015, the area of land exposed to wind erosion was 24.2 million hectares and compared to 2010 (0.6 million hectares)1 has increased 41 times.

From 2010 to 2017, the area of irrigated land increased from 2.1 to 2.2 million hectares, or by 4.6%. Akmola (31 thousand hectares), Aktobe (28.1), Atyrau (21.8), North Kazakhstan (17) and Mangystau (2.3) regions are the least provided with irrigated lands.

The share of pastures from the total area of the republic's territory is 68.4%. The area of pastures in 2017 was 186.4 million hectares, which is 1.02% less than in 2010 (188.3 million hectares).

In 2018, the reserve's land area was 96.7 million hectares and decreased by 13.5% compared to 2010 (111.8 million hectares).

The largest share of eroded agricultural lands (more than 30% of their total area) is located in the Almaty, Atyrau and Turkestan regions.

At the end of 2016, there were 248.3 thousand hectares of land in the republic that were disturbed during the construction of industrial facilities, linear structures and other enterprises, during the development of mineral deposits, their processing and exploration, of which 51 thousand hectares have been worked out and are subject to reclamation.

The largest number of disturbed lands is located in three regions: in Mangystau - 78.6 thousand hectares, Karaganda - 45.3 thousand hectares and Kostanay - 37.8 thousand hectares.

In total, there are 3,346 enterprises and organizations in the republic that have disturbed lands on their territory.

It is expected that with a further increase in the average annual temperature, the problem of land desertification will increase. There will be a shift of Kazakhstan's agricultural zones to the north, which will negatively affect agricultural production.

Insufficient measures to preserve and improve land quality may limit the further development of the agro-industrial complex as a driver of economic growth.

It is also necessary to pay increased attention to the assessment and preservation of ecosystem integrity, "green" infrastructure2, and forest lands as elements of ensuring a high quality of life for the population. By the end of 2018, the area of the forest fund amounted to 29.8 million hectares (4.7% of the country's territory), an increase of 1.1 million hectares compared to 2010. The largest areas of forest lands are concentrated in Kyzylorda (6.7 million hectares), Almaty (5.3 million hectares), Zhambyl (4.4 million hectares), East Kazakhstan (3.7 million hectares) and Turkestan (3.4 million hectares) regions. At the same time, the positions of the forested area indicator are somewhat shifted. In particular, the highest forest cover is observed in Zhambyl region - 15.5%, followed by Turkestan - 13.9%, Kyzylorda - 13.6%, Almaty - 8.4% of the region.

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1 According to the Land Resources Management Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the survey is conducted once every 5 years

2 "Green" infrastructure, as an ecosystem, is of strategic importance for human life, including forest and natural areas, parks, and landscape elements

It is necessary to continue the restoration of the ribbon pine forests of the Irtysh region on the basis of the Yertys Ormany and Semey Ormany natural reserves (Pavlodar and East Kazakhstan regions), afforestation on the drained bottom of the Aral Sea and phytomelioration in the Kyzylorda region.

In addition, it is necessary to continue work on increasing forest reproduction and afforestation until 2030.

The problems of increasing scarcity and irrational use of water resources, pollution of surface and groundwater, and interstate separation of transboundary rivers continue to have a significant impact on territorial and spatial development. The Nura-Sarysu, Yesil, and Tobol-Torgai basins are the most deficient in groundwater. Significant territories of the Yesil, Zhaiyk-Caspian, Aral-Syrdarya, Tobol-Torgai and Nur-Sarysu basins are experiencing shortages in both surface and groundwater.

In order to reduce the risk of potential water scarcity, it is necessary to continue implementing water conservation measures in agriculture, industry and utilities.

There are 8 surface water basins in the country, with Atyrau, Mangystau and Karaganda regions experiencing the greatest water scarcity. In this regard, it is necessary to consider the development of cost-effective technical solutions for the transfer of water resources to water-deficient basins and the use of renewable underground sources.

In order to prevent a decline in available water resources, it is necessary to maintain contacts with all bordering States on an ongoing basis within the framework of agreements on transboundary rivers. Also, based on the need, it is necessary to implement measures for the construction of new infrastructure facilities to increase the long-term available water reserves.

Oil, gas, and coal industries

In 2010-2017, crude oil production decreased, including in the Aktobe region by 28.8%, West Kazakhstan region by 31.7%, Kyzylorda region by 38.9% and Mangystau region by 2.9%.

The share of pastures from the total area of the republic's territory is 68.4%. The area of pastures in 2017 was 186.4 million hectares, which is 1.02% less than in 2010 (188.3 million hectares).

In 2018, the reserve's land area was 96.7 million hectares and decreased by 13.5% compared to 2010 (111.8 million hectares).

The largest share of eroded agricultural lands (more than 30% of their total area) is located in the Almaty, Atyrau and Turkestan regions.

The largest number of disturbed lands is located in three regions: in Mangystau - 78.6 thousand hectares, Karaganda - 45.3 thousand hectares and Kostanay - 37.8 thousand hectares.

In total, there are 3,346 enterprises and organizations in the republic that have disturbed lands on their territory.

Insufficient measures to preserve and improve land quality may limit the further development of the agro-industrial complex as a driver of economic growth.

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1 According to the Land Resources Management Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the survey is conducted once every 5 years

2 "Green" infrastructure, as an ecosystem, is of strategic importance for human life, including forest and natural areas, parks, and landscape elements

In addition, it is necessary to continue work on increasing forest reproduction and afforestation until 2030.

In order to reduce the risk of potential water scarcity, it is necessary to continue implementing water conservation measures in agriculture, industry and utilities.

Oil, gas, and coal industries

In 2010-2017, crude oil production decreased, including in the Aktobe region by 28.8%, West Kazakhstan region by 31.7%, Kyzylorda region by 38.9% and Mangystau region by 2.9%.

In the future, according to forecasts of the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, oil production by 2030 is expected to decrease by 63% compared to 2018 in the Kyzylorda region, Atyrau region - by 33%, Mangystau region - by 23%, West Kazakhstan region - by 10%, Aktobe region - by 4.3%. Due to the continuing trends of depletion of natural resources in these regions, measures will need to be taken to further diversify the economy and create jobs in other sectors in response to the possible release of labor resources and a reduction in budget revenues. In addition, it is necessary to provide a set of measures to facilitate voluntary resettlement.

In general, by 2030, the forecast for oil production, according to the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, will be 105 million tons (2018 - 90.4 million tons), taking into account offshore production (39.8 million tons).

In 2018, the country's natural gas production reached 55.5 billion cubic meters, which is 48.4% more than in 2010 (37.4 billion cubic meters).

By 2030, the forecast for gas production, according to the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, will amount to 80.6 billion cubic meters.

For the further development of the gas industry, modernization of the gas transportation infrastructure is necessary first of all.

The coal-producing regions are Karaganda, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions.

In recent years, coal exports have decreased by 25.7% (2018 - 24.2 million tons, 2010 - 32.6 million tons)3.

The main reasons for the further decline in coal industry production are a reduction in exports, further gasification of the country, the development of renewable energy sources (hereinafter referred to as RES), and increased environmental requirements.

Highways, rail, air and water transport

In 2018, the share of national highways in good and satisfactory condition increased from 83% to 87% compared to 2015.

There is still a high proportion of local roads in poor condition. In the West Kazakhstan region, it is 71.3%, Aktobe - 47%, Atyrau - 46% and North Kazakhstan - 39%. The development of the local road network should be aimed at improving the connectivity of the district centers with the main rural settlements (hereinafter referred to as SIPS) and the cities of the regions.

Since 2010, major railway construction projects have been implemented: Uzen - the State Border with Turkmenistan - 146 km, Zhetygen - Korgas - 293 km, Zhezkazgan-Beineu - 1036 km, Borzhakty - Yersai - 14 km, Arkalyk - Shubarkol - 214 km, and Also, the second route "Almaty - Shu" is 112 km.

There is an increase in the number and demand for rail transportation. In 2018, 397.9 million tons of cargo were transported, which is 48% more than in 2010 (267.9 million tons). In 2018, 23.1 million passengers were transported, which is an increase of 17.9% compared to 2010 (19.6 million people).

The main constraints to the further development of railway transport remain the high depreciation of the main assets, including the mainline railway network - 58% (2018) and the passenger car fleet - 46% (2018).

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3 According to the CC MNE PK

The existing problems in the railway industry in the future may lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the transport infrastructure and negatively affect the development of transit potential.

Between 2010 and 2018, air transport figures increased. Thus, the number of passengers transported increased 2.3 times to 7.9 million in 2018 (3.4 million in 2010).

In general, all regions of the country are covered by air links with major regional centers - the cities of Astana and Almaty. However, there is a low coverage of air traffic between the regions themselves.

In total, there are 18 airports of national and regional importance in the country. Of the 17 airports allowed to handle international flights, 16 comply with ISO4 standards. In order to expand Kazakhstan's international relations, emphasis should be placed on the development of air links with world economic centers such as Frankfurt, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Istanbul, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, Delhi, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and others. In the future, direct flights will be operated to cities in the United States of America (hereinafter referred to as the USA) and Japan.

Measures for the development of water transport in the future will be aimed at further development and modernization of the infrastructure of seaports, reconstruction of coastal infrastructure, renovation of water transport vessels and others.

Infocommunication infrastructure

The density of fixed Internet subscribers using broadband access (hereinafter referred to as broadband) per 100 people in 2018 was 14 units. and it has increased 2.5 times compared to 2010.

The problem of the infocommunication infrastructure is the incomplete coverage of roads, railways, and 4G by mobile communications and the Internet, which preserves digital inequality. Currently, work is underway to provide broadband access to the Internet using fiber-optic communication lines and LTE (4G) wireless radio access networks, as well as new generation 5G communication networks.

There are data centers in the cities of Pavlodar and Almaty. Regions with an excess of electricity and the necessary infrastructure will be promising for hosting data centers.

Energy supply

Energy is an important sector in the territorial and spatial development of the country, ensuring uninterrupted energy supply, which is a prerequisite for the competitiveness of the economy.

From the point of view of the quality of life of the population, it is important that the energy infrastructure is accessible and sustainable for people and production.

Unified Electric Power System (hereinafter - UES) Kazakhstan operates steadily in parallel with the energy systems of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Russian Federation) and Central Asian countries. System reliability has been ensured, and the demand of the economy and the population for electricity has been met.

The UES is conventionally divided into Northern, Southern and Western zones. According to the Concept of development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Northern Zone will remain energy-surplus until 2030. Its electric capacity will be sufficient to cover the shortage of capacity in the Southern Zone through the North-South transit. The western zone will remain self-balancing.

At the same time, one of the important issues is the need for maneuvering capacity. The relevance of this issue is increasing due to the annual increase in the share of power plants using renewable energy sources.

The republic has significant potential for the development of renewable energy sources, including wind, hydro, solar and geothermal energy.

In 2018, renewable energy facilities generated 1,352 million kWh of electricity, which is 1.27% of the total electricity production. The main hydropower facilities are located in Almaty, Zhambyl, Mangystau, North Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions.

Generating capacities for the production of wind electricity operate in Akmola, Almaty, Zhambyl and North Kazakhstan regions.

There is a high potential for wind energy development in Akmola, Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, East Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Karaganda, Kostanay, Mangystau and North Kazakhstan regions. There are resources for the construction of hydroelectric power plants in Almaty, East Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Karaganda and Turkestan regions.

Conditions for the development of solar energy are available in Akmola, Almaty, East Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, Karaganda, Kyzylorda, Mangystau and Turkestan regions.

Gas supply to settlements affects the comfort and quality of life of the population, reduces emissions of pollutants. Currently, 9 million people are covered by centralized gas supply in 12 regions of the country - Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, East Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Kyzylorda, Mangystau, Turkestan regions, Almaty and Shymkent.

By 2030, it is planned to increase gasification coverage to 13.55 million people due to the commissioning of the Saryarka main gas pipeline.

Water supply and sanitation

According to the results of 2018, the provision of centralized water supply to the population in cities amounted to 94.5%, in villages - 59.9%. In 2.6 thousand . There is no centralized water supply in the North Kazakhstan region, 70% of which are in the Akmola, East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions.

One of the problems of cities remains insufficient sanitation coverage, in 2018 it was 68.7%.

Of the 87 cities, 28 lack sewage treatment plants. Of the 58 sewage treatment plants in cities, 26 require modernization and reconstruction. By the end of 2023, it is planned to increase the coverage of wastewater treatment in cities to 100%.

The use of "green" technologies based on sludge processing with the possibility of producing biogas, electricity and fertilizers will significantly reduce the cost of upgrading sewage treatment plants and increase the investment attractiveness of such projects for investors.

There are already proposals from international financial organizations to provide preferential loans, as well as from large construction companies willing to invest through a public-private partnership (hereinafter - PPP) mechanism.

Social infrastructure

Housing policy

The provision of housing per inhabitant increased from 18.4 sq. m between 2010 and 2017. Up to 21.6 sq. m. The highest availability of housing is observed in the cities of Astana (29.8 sq. m. per resident), Almaty (27.1), Shymkent (24.2), Mangystau (23.3) and Karaganda (23) regions. The lowest availability of housing was noted in Zhambyl (16.6) and Turkestan (17.9) regions.

There are currently 1,297 dilapidated residential buildings in the country (2015 - 4,582 units, 2017 - 3,293 units). There is a positive downward trend in dilapidated and dilapidated housing, except in Atyrau region, where its number has increased 3-fold.

Education

Pre-school education for children

From 2010 to 2017, the provision of preschool institutions improved from 104.9 to 96.1 children per 100 places. In some regions, there is a shortage of places in kindergartens - Mangystau region (115.6 children per 100 places), Astana city (110.9), Pavlodar region (109.1) and so on. The main problems of preschool education remain a shortage of places in certain regions, a large proportion of preschool organizations located in adapted buildings, especially in Turkestan, Kyzylorda and Almaty regions, and a shortage of qualified teaching staff.

General secondary education

Currently, there are 7,393 schools, including 2,055 in urban areas and 5,285 in rural areas. In recent years, the number of urban schools has been increasing, while rural schools have been declining. Thus, from 2010 to 2018, the number of rural schools decreased from 5,996 to 5,285 units.

The main problem of general secondary education is the shortage of qualified personnel. There are also problems with the low level of the material and technical base, incomplete staffing of teaching staff. In addition, there is a problem with the functioning of emergency and three-shift schools, as well as insufficient coverage of hot meals, which affects the quality and safety of education.

As of October 2018, there were 31 emergency schools. Currently, the problem with emergency schools is most acute in Turkestan (22.6% of all emergency schools in the country), Atyrau (16.1%), West Kazakhstan (16.1%) and Zhambyl (12.9%) regions.

There are 128 three-shift schools,5 including in the city of Shymkent, as well as in Aktobe, Atyrau, Almaty, Akmola and Turkestan regions. In three years, the share of schools with Internet access increased from 75.9% to 98.7%, including in 2018, 93% of schools had Internet access with speeds of 4 Mbit/s and higher.

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5 "Statistics of the education system of the Republic of Kazakhstan". National Collection, 2018

The share of schools with central heating at the beginning of 2018 was 21.4% (1,507 units). A significant part of schools (45.5%) are heated autonomously using solid fuels. Gas-fired heating is used in only 17% of schools.

Technical and vocational education (hereinafter referred to as TVET)

In 2018, 821 organizations operated in the field of VET, the number of which decreased by 73 units or by 7% compared to 2010. By region, the largest number of VET organizations is represented in Almaty (93 units), Turkestan (66 units), East Kazakhstan (87 units), Almaty (74 units) and Karaganda (70 units) regions.

In 2018, 488.7 thousand students attended colleges, which is 120.3 thousand fewer than in 2010. As of 2018, there were 174 colleges with 40.9 thousand students in rural areas.

The main problems of the development of the VET field are the discrepancy between the competencies of graduates and the requirements of the labor market, the lack of qualified teaching staff, and the unattractiveness of the VET field for young qualified professionals.

Higher education

The number of higher education institutions in 2018 was 124. and it has decreased by 25 units since 2010 . The number of students was 542.4 thousand people. The majority of universities are located in the cities of Almaty (41 units), Astana (14 units) and Shymkent (10 units).

The main problems of the industry are the inconsistency of educational programs with market requirements, the persistence of the gap between science and education, poor access to higher education for people with special educational needs, and the unattractiveness of the country's higher education for foreign citizens.

At the same time, an analysis of urban agglomerations in the country indicates that there are a number of problems hindering their development.

Insufficient coordination of infrastructure development and budget planning of the agglomeration center and surrounding settlements leads to uneven development of central and suburban areas. The center draws on resources, thereby reducing the attractiveness of peripheral areas for people and investments.

The problems associated with high network wear and poor transport connectivity remain relevant. In the centers of agglomerations, the problem of spontaneous sprawl of the outskirts persists. This leads to displacement of natural landscapes and increased anthropogenic impact on the ecological system. The centers of agglomerations are characterized by high air pollution. According to the results of 2018, the cities of Astana, Almaty and Aktobe recorded a high level of atmospheric air pollution (atmospheric pollution index 5 - 7-13), and the city of Shymkent recorded an increased level of pollution (atmospheric pollution index 5 - 5-6). There are problems related to the processing of solid household waste (hereinafter referred to as MSW).

As a result of the daily pendulum migration, agglomeration centers experience significant pressures on social and engineering infrastructure, housing shortages, and so on.

It is necessary to review the existing boundaries of agglomerations. For example, the territories of the capital (21.7 thousand square kilometers) and Almaty (9.4 thousand square kilometers) agglomerations significantly exceed the area of the territories of the largest agglomerations in the world, such as Tokyo (8.5 thousand square kilometers), Chicago (6.8 thousand square kilometers), Shanghai (3.5 thousand square kilometers), Sao Paulo (3.2 thousand square kilometers).

Metropolitan area. Over the past 10 years, the gross regional product (GRP) of the city has grown 4.2 times, and the share of the city in the country's GDP in 2018 (according to preliminary data) increased to 9.8%, while almost 80% of GRP is generated by the service sector.

The population of the center has grown by 70% over the past 10 years and amounted to 1,078.3 thousand people.

The rapid growth of the population creates a number of problems, the main of which are low availability of medical personnel, shortage of places in preschool institutions, lack of engineering infrastructure (Light rail transport (hereinafter referred to as LRT), storm sewers, parking lots).

Other problematic issues of an infrastructural nature remain: dilapidated housing, deterioration of water supply networks (40-42%), traffic congestion, and the infrastructural lack of infrastructure on the outskirts of the city.

There is an imbalance of labor supply and demand in the labor market of the agglomeration.

Atmospheric pollution from TPP-1 and TPP-2, motor vehicles, and private homes remains an acute problem.

The discharge of untreated industrial and municipal wastewater, as well as the imperfection of the city's stormwater system, leads to pollution of the Yesil River.

Almaty agglomeration. The core of the agglomeration has a developed service economy, the share of services in GRP is 87%. Having no raw material base, the city relies on human capital and entrepreneurship. By the end of 2018, 174 thousand small and medium-sized businesses (hereinafter referred to as SMEs) were operating in Almaty. The share of SMEs in the GRP structure is 39.5%.

The population of the agglomeration center has grown by 32.3% over the past 10 years and amounted to 1.8 million people by the end of 2018.

One of the main problems of the agglomeration center is overcoming the consequences of high levels of migration and the sprawl of the outskirts of the city.

Problems in the housing and communal services system (hereinafter referred to as housing and communal services) need to be addressed: a high level of wear and tear on electricity and heat supply, water supply and sanitation networks (more than 60%) and, as a result, losses in the networks.

The main source of atmospheric air pollution is motor transport. Gross emissions from stationary sources (including CHP-2) amount to 39 thousand tons (about 32%), from the individual residential sector - 3.9 thousand tons (3%), from mobile sources - 80 thousand tons (65%).

Due to the geographical features of its location, Almaty is one of the most seismic and mudslide-prone regions.

Shymkent agglomeration. The population of Shymkent has grown by 69% over the past 10 years and amounted to 1,009 thousand people by the end of 2018. Industry occupies 26.6% of the GRP structure, while wholesale and retail trade account for 15.4%.

The uncontrolled expansion of the agglomeration center without public access to basic engineering and social infrastructure leads to a decrease in economic density in the agglomeration center and an increase in the city's construction and maintenance costs.

About 50% of the volume of industrial production falls on the agglomeration center. At the same time, 61% of manufacturing industry products are produced in the city of Shymkent. Most of the region's fixed assets are also located in the center of the agglomeration - 68%.

There are problems in the city related to the low availability of medical personnel, a shortage of places in preschool institutions and the availability of three-shift schooling.

The city's road infrastructure needs to be improved. More than half of the roads are in poor condition.

Aktobe agglomeration. 638 thousand people currently live in the Aktobe agglomeration. Over the past 10 years, the population of the agglomeration center has grown by 19% and amounted to 488 thousand people by the end of 2018.

The agglomeration center accounts for about 33% of the volume of industrial production in Aktobe region and 82.5% of the total manufacturing industry.

The economy of the agglomeration is heavily dependent on commodity markets. The agglomeration's export basket is characterized by low diversification. For the sustainability of the economy, it is necessary to take measures to develop the manufacturing industry and the service sector based on existing capacities.

A poorly diversified economy, an underdeveloped labor market and the predominance of extractive industries lead to an outflow of qualified personnel outside the agglomeration. The proximity of Russian cities with millions of residents also contributes to the outflow of population.

In addition to the agglomeration, the centers of functional urban areas (hereinafter referred to as FGR) are all regional centers and the city of Semey. In total, there are 34 cities and more than 500 rural settlements in agglomerations and other federal states, where more than 11 million people live. It should be noted that the FGR are local centers of regional growth.

Analysis of problems and trends in the development of mono- and small towns. In fact, in all mono- and small towns, socio-economic development indicators are lower than the national average and tend to decrease, for example, a decline in production (up to 30% on average), high depreciation of engineering and social infrastructure (more than 50% on average), a negative migration balance (about 20 thousand people), a high proportion of the retirement age population (10% of the population), the distance to a large settlement with which there is a closer socio-economic connection (on average 134 km).

The problems of single-industry towns are mainly related to the low degree of diversification of their economies, the high dependence of employment on the prospects for the development of a city-forming enterprise, and the depletion of raw materials (for example, in the cities of Zhanaozen and Arkalyk).

In cities with stable economic growth and development prospects, the availability of professional personnel, primarily engineering and technical workers, is relevant.

Mono- and small towns within the FGR have prospects for economic development, while the potential of the remaining cities has no positive dynamics. At the same time, single-industry towns with a population of 50,000 or more, which are not part of the FGR, require special attention from the state due to the availability of human resources in them and the need for their employment in the event of a decrease in production volumes at city-forming enterprises.

Rural development. The main socio-economic indicators of rural development have stabilized in recent years.

However, there are still a number of problems in rural areas that need to be addressed.

3.5 thousand . SNP (or 52.8% of 6.5 thousand With a population of less than 500 people, 678.8 thousand people live. Most of these SNPs occur in the North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan, Akmola, Kostanay, Karaganda, and West Kazakhstan regions.

The employment structure of the rural population in 2018 showed a high level of self-employment (35.1%), especially in West Kazakhstan (55.5%), Kyzylorda (49.5%), Turkestan (46.5%), Zhambyl (43.4%), Akmola (40.1%) and East Kazakhstan (43.6%) regions.

The problem of providing centralized water supply remains relevant in the SNP. Currently, 59.9% of the total number of rural settlements or 84.5% of the rural population are provided with centralized water supply. In Pavlodar, Kostanay, West Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, East Kazakhstan, Aktobe, Karaganda, Akmola, North Kazakhstan and Mangystau regions, from 30% to 70% of rural settlements do not have access to centralized water supply. The problem of providing drinking water to small rural settlements is solved by providing both centralized water supply and local modular units.

The total length of roads in the local network is 70.6 thousand km. At the same time, 32% of local roads are in poor condition: in West Kazakhstan (71.3%), Aktobe (47%), Atyrau (46%), North Kazakhstan (39%) and Kyzylorda (36.5%) regions.

Analysis of problems of development of border territories. The number of border SNPs and the population are decreasing every year. At the moment, there are 1.2 thousand in the border regions. With a population of about 1.5 million people, the migration outflow by the end of 2017 amounted to 16 thousand people.

However, at present, the potential of the country's border regions has not been sufficiently realized. While in the southern regions and the Mangystau region there is an influx of migrants from the People's Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the PRC), Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, in the northern regions bordering the Russian Federation there is a migration outflow of the population to its large cities. The border regions of Kazakhstan lag behind a number of border regions of other countries in terms of the size of the average per capita income of the population, the availability of competitive vocational education institutions, which in the future creates a risk of outflow of qualified specialists and young people.

Further development of the border territories will be associated with solving the following systemic problems:

Unattractive investment conditions; insufficient employment provision;

insufficient financing of infrastructure projects both in settlements themselves (construction and reconstruction of schools, hospitals, roads, water supply systems, landscaping, etc.) and border infrastructure (improvement of border crossing points, border outposts, customs and border infrastructure, improvement of technical equipment of existing border crossings, checkpoints and customs posts);

unsatisfactory condition of highways; high deterioration of social infrastructure and housing and communal services; lack of specialists in budgetary organizations of education, health, culture and sports; deterioration of pasture lands.

Classification and analysis of regions by economic specialization6

Akmola region

The specialization of the region is industrial and agricultural in nature. The share of the region in the gross agricultural output in 2018 was 9% (5th place). The main agricultural products of the region are cereals, the sown area of which in the region is the largest in Kazakhstan - 4.3 million hectares, or 19.8% of the total sown area of agricultural crops in the country. Crop production dominates in the sectoral structure of agriculture in the region - 66.1%.

The share of industry in the GRP structure of the region is 25.7%. Industry specialization is represented by the extraction of gold-bearing ores, the chemical industry, food production, mechanical engineering, as well as the production of building materials. Aktobe region

The region belongs to the industrial and agricultural regions of the country. The main part of the GRP structure is occupied by industry (38.4%), which is represented by oil and gas production, metallurgy, chemical industry and mechanical engineering. The region accounts for 6.7% of the country's mining industry (4th place). The region ranks 9th in terms of GRP.

Almaty region

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6 Further, under the subsection "Classification and analysis of regions by economic specialization", the data are given for 2018

The region is an industrial and agrarian one, where 77% of the population lives in rural areas. The region ranks first in the country in terms of gross agricultural output, with equal shares of crop and livestock production.

Agriculture accounts for 14.7% of the region's GRP, while industry accounts for 24.4%. The basis of the industry is food production. The industry is also represented by the production of building materials, mechanical engineering and metallurgy.

Atyrau region

The region is a leader in the production of industrial products. The region produces 27.2% of the country's total national industrial output. The share of industry in the GRP structure is 52%, while more than 85% of the total industrial production is accounted for by the oil and gas industry.

The region also specializes in oil refining, petrochemistry, fish farming and the production of building materials.

East Kazakhstan region

The region belongs to the number of industrial and agrarian regions of the country. The region has developed mining of metal ores, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, automotive, chemical industry, animal husbandry, crop production, and food production. The region accounts for 10% of the country's manufacturing industry (3rd place), as well as 11.6% of the country's agricultural production (3rd place).

Zhambyl region

Zhambyl region is an industrial and agricultural region. The share of industry in the GRP structure is 18%, agriculture - 10.2%. The industry is based on the chemical industry, metallurgy and food production.

West Kazakhstan region

The West Kazakhstan region is one of the industrial and agricultural regions, as well as the third oil-producing region in terms of oil and condensate production after Atyrau and Mangystau regions. The region accounts for 97% of the total volume of gas condensate production in the republic and 40% of the volume of gas production. In addition to gas condensate and oil, the region has deposits of borate ores, oil shales, potassium-magnesium salts, calcareous rocks, cement raw materials, chalk, expanded clay, construction and alluvial sand.

In addition to the oil and gas industry, food production and mechanical engineering are developed.

Karaganda region

Karaganda region is one of the highly developed industrial regions of the country. The share of the region in the country's GDP in 2018 was 7.4% (4th place). Industry occupies 47.8% of the GRP structure, while the share of the manufacturing industry is 32%. The developed industrial structure has predetermined the current settlement structure of the region's population. The region is the most urbanized region in the country (79.7%).

The main areas of economic specialization of the region are mining of metal ores, coal, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, food production, as well as the production of building materials.

Kostanay region

The economic specialization of the region is industrial and agrarian in nature. The share of industry in the GRP structure is 24.6%, agriculture - 11.2%.

The region is a major producer of meat, milk and grain (the region produces 1/3 of the total volume of wheat produced in the country). The region ranks first in the country in terms of agricultural land area (14.6 million hectares). Significant areas of pasture lands (12.5 million hectares) are also concentrated in the region.

The rich mineral resource base contributes to the development of industrial production in the region. The region holds a leading position in the extraction of asbestos and iron ores. The region also has developed agricultural machinery, automotive industry and food production.

Kyzylorda region

The mining industry (oil and gas production) forms the basis of the region's economy. The industry's share in the region's GRP is 33%. The mining industry accounts for almost 80% of the industrial structure.

The area also specializes in rice cultivation and salt production.

Mangystau region

The oil and gas industry forms the basis of the region's economy. The region accounts for 18% of the country's mining industry (2nd place). The region also has a well-developed chemical industry, mechanical engineering, the production of refined petroleum products and the production of building materials. The region ranks 5th in terms of GRP.

Pavlodar region

The economic specialization of the region is industrial in nature. The share of industry in the GRP structure is 43.5%. More than a quarter of the region's working population is employed in industry. About 40% of the country's electricity is produced in the region, 100% of alumina and aluminum production is concentrated, as well as more than a third of Kazakhstan's total coal reserves (60% of coal produced).

The main industries are metallurgy, the production of petroleum products, the chemical industry, mechanical engineering, and energy.

The industrial specialization of the region's economy has determined a high level of urbanization (70.8%).

North Kazakhstan region

The region is one of the agricultural regions of the country. The share of agriculture in the regional economy is 24%. The region produces 21.4% of the total volume of wheat grown in the country.

Industry accounts for 14% of the region's GRP and is represented by food production and the machine-building industry.

The agrarian orientation of the region's economy has predetermined a high proportion of the rural population (55.6%).

Turkestan region

The region is one of the country's industrial and agricultural regions and is a major producer and supplier of cotton, fruit and vegetable products, food, and building materials. The region ranks second in the republic in terms of gross agricultural output.

In terms of uranium reserves, the region ranks first (60%), phosphorites and iron ores - the third place.

Agriculture and industry occupy approximately equal shares in the GRP structure, 19 and 19.5%, respectively.

Astana city

The city has a developed post-industrial economic structure based on the service sector and trade. The city produces 9.8% of the country's GDP. The city has developed services in the field of financial and insurance activities, education, medicine, entertainment, science and others.

The city of Almaty

The city of Almaty is the largest financial, commercial, tourist and cultural center of the country. The share of Almaty city in the republic's GDP is 20.6% and is the highest compared to other regions.

The city specializes in services and trade, including financial and insurance activities, tourism, educational services, medical services, transport and logistics, distribution, and others.

Shymkent city

The trade and services sector plays an important role in the economy of Shymkent. The share of trade in the GRP structure is 15.4%. The city also has a well-developed industry, which accounts for 26.5% of GRP.

The city specializes in food production, trade, tourism, light industry, oil refining, mechanical engineering, chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, transport and logistics, and services.

Conclusions: In the coming decade, drastic measures should be taken to address the systemic problems of the regions, including improving infrastructure provision and identifying reserves for economic growth, taking into account readiness to meet the challenges of resource constraints (resource depletion, water scarcity, and land degradation).

In general, the territorial and spatial development of the regions in the future will depend on the solution of priority problems, the removal of resource and infrastructure constraints.

The key issues of the country's spatial development that need to be addressed as a matter of priority should be the following.

First, it is necessary to improve the quality of national and local highways. It is necessary to increase the connectivity of the country's regions at the national level, and improve roads between SNPs at the regional level.

Solving the problem will help to increase the mobility of citizens within the regions, improve the social and economic situation, increase the availability of goods and services in the field of healthcare and education, and others. Improving the quality of highways and connectivity of settlements is aimed at reducing inequality in access to social and other services, infrastructure, both between regions and between urban and rural areas.

Secondly, the issue of providing the necessary social infrastructure (lack of social facilities, etc.) needs to be addressed, taking into account the demographic forecast, the intersectoral and interregional flow of labor resources, training and retraining of personnel.

Thirdly, in the coming years, investments should be prioritized to upgrade infrastructure in agglomerations and federal districts where population growth is taking place. Consequently, the network of urban engineering infrastructure will be improved, which in the future will be stressed due to the growth of the urban population.

The development of engineering infrastructure should take into account the policy of managed urbanization and the prevention of chaotic sprawl of the outskirts of agglomerations due to the influx of internal labor migrants.

Measures for the development of mono- and small towns should primarily be linked to the prospects for their economic development, contribution to the region's economy, and population dynamics. In relation to mono- and small towns with low development potential, measures will be aimed at maintaining the housing and communal services infrastructure in a satisfactory condition.

Fourth, rural areas need to solve the problem of access to centralized water supply and high-quality roads. It is also necessary to consider the revision of the administrative-territorial structure.

Fifth, it is necessary to take a set of measures for the rational use of water and land resources and environmental protection. For example, in agriculture, it is necessary to ensure the restoration of estuary irrigation technology and the rational use of meltwater in the spring. It is necessary to ensure the reduction of emissions of harmful substances and the introduction of advanced technologies in industrial enterprises.

Sixth, in the future, depletion of mineral reserves, scarcity of water resources, the development of new technologies, automation and digitalization of production will require deepening the economic specialization of the regions with an emphasis on the production of high-value-added products.

1.2. Assessment of the demographic situation and migration processes until 2030

Population size

The demographic situation in Kazakhstan in 2010-2018 was characterized as favorable due to positive natural growth.

The population of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2018 amounted to 18,395,6 thousand people, compared with the number at the beginning of 2010 increased by 2,192,3 thousand people, or by 13.5% (Figure 1).

According to the demographic forecast (hereinafter referred to as the forecast), the population is expected to increase to 21 million people by 2030.

Figure 1 - Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, thousand people at the end of the year

Source: CC MNE RK www.stat.gov.kz , forecast of the Joint-Stock Company "Institute of Economic Research" of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

By region, significant population growth in 2010-2018 was observed in the cities of Astana and Almaty, as well as in Almaty, Aktobe, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, Atyrau, Turkestan and Mangystau regions.

In North Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan regions, on the contrary, there was a decrease in the population due to a decrease in the birth rate and migration outflow (Figure 2).

The annual population growth was mainly due to positive natural growth, as well as internal and external migration (for the cities of Astana, Almaty and Mangystau region).

By 2030, it is expected that an increase in natural growth, as well as migration processes, will affect the overall increase in the country's population. The exception may be the North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and Karaganda regions.

Since 2010, there has been an increase in the level of urbanization: the urban population increased from 8.8 million to 10.6 million people from 2010 to 2018.

Figure 2 - Population by region at the beginning of the year, thousand people.

Source: CC MNE RK www.stat.gov.kz , forecast of the Joint-Stock Company "Institute of Economic Research" of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

As a result of the active migration influx into urban areas and the high growth rate of natural growth in cities, the level of urbanization reached 58.2% by the end of 2018. According to the forecast, by 2030, the level of urbanization is expected to reach 65% under the influence of the same factors.

Since 2010, the percentage of men and women has not changed significantly and has developed with a preponderance of the female population: 51.5% versus 48.5%. The same trends are expected to continue until 2030.

When assessing the demographic situation in the world, according to the UN7, the population is aging in developed and developing countries, and this trend is projected to intensify until 2030.

A similar situation is observed in Kazakhstan. The sex and age structure of the population for the period from 2010 to 2017 (Figure 3) indicates an increase in the population over 65 years of age, while the share of the able-bodied population and women of fertile age is decreasing (by 1.3%).

By 2030, the trend of an increase in the population over 65 is expected to continue, while the number of women of fertile age is expected to decrease.

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7 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs / Population Division "World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision", Key Findings and Advance Tables

8 The working-age population consists of men aged 16-62 and women aged 16-57. Due to changes in the pension legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, starting from January 1, 2018, changes will be made for the female population in accordance with the schedule of women's retirement by year and date of birth (for calculating forecast data)

* From here on: data for 2018 will be published in November 2019, so data for 2017 will be used.

Source: CC MNE RK www.stat.gov.kz , forecast of the Joint-Stock Company "Institute of Economic Research" of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The introduction of elements of the "silver economy" concept into the economy is becoming relevant,9 that is, meeting the increasing needs of the older population may become a new driver of economic growth, which will entail significant investments in medical and recreational infrastructure.

Therefore, for the formation of a sustainable "silver economy", it is important that health and care services become more personalized and meet the needs of older people.

The "silver Economy" is based on digital tools and services, and therefore it is important to achieve a high level of digital literacy among older people.

In 2010-2018, there was an increase in the natural growth of the population in the range from 221.7 to 267.3 thousand people. Natural growth is expected to decrease to 227.5 thousand people by 2025, followed by an increase to 251.0 thousand people by 2030.

By region, a high level of natural growth in 2018 was observed in the Turkestan region - 44.2 thousand people, Almaty - 37.1 thousand people, in the cities of Astana - 25.0 thousand people, Shymkent - 22.4 thousand people. It is predicted that by 2030, the same regions will remain the leaders in natural growth, which will require active measures to create jobs, train and retrain personnel, and provide social and engineering infrastructure.

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9 "Silver economy" is a cross-cutting economy, the target group of which is the elderly population ("silver hair"), and the main task is to ensure and meet their needs

The negative value of natural growth will remain in the North Kazakhstan region. A significant decrease in natural growth is also expected in Kostanay, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and Karaganda regions. In these regions, measures should be taken to create conditions and jobs in the centers of economic growth.

Measures should also be taken to address the problem of reducing natural population growth by fulfilling social guarantees for women during child care and creating comfortable living conditions.

Population migration

Migration processes in Kazakhstan until 2018 were characterized by an increase in population loss to 29.1 thousand people annually.

For the most part, the working-age population is decreasing, and the number of those younger than working age is also increasing. Thus, in 2010-2017, the balance between arrivals and departures amounted to 24.1 thousand people among the working-age population, 14.5 thousand people among the population under working age, 11.4 thousand people over working age.

In terms of regions, population growth due to migration influx in 2010-2018 was noted in Almaty and Mangystau regions, Astana and Almaty cities. An active outflow of the population was noted in Karaganda, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan regions. The above trends are expected to continue until 2030.

The noted trends and projected negative trends are a challenge for the regions and the country as a whole, and therefore it is necessary to take measures to reduce the outflow of the population and, in particular, youth (construction of rental housing without foreclosure in large and large cities, increasing the attractiveness of domestic universities, creating high-income jobs in innovative industries, and improving the quality of life in cities and others).

In order to increase the attractiveness of domestic universities, it is necessary to further update the material and technical base with modern equipment, provide modern dormitories, involve business in personnel training, especially in technical specialties, and co-finance scientific projects and research by business.

In order to prevent the outflow of students and attract international students, it is necessary to take a set of measures that include both material (a broad system of grants and scholarships, a student loan program, the organization of work practices and internships) and non-material (the implementation of academic exchange programs, the development of programs in English) mechanisms.

In general, the development of the vocational and higher education system should be focused on meeting the existing and future needs of the labor market.

In implementing the "people to infrastructure" principle, population growth, both through migration and natural growth, sets the task for regions to prepare in advance through urban planning and advanced development of engineering and social infrastructure.

The labor market

From 2010 to 201810, the number of the workforce increased by 527.9 thousand people, the employed population - by 580.8 thousand people, the share of the employed population increased by 0.9% (Figure 4).

Figure 4 - Labor market indicators

Source: CC MNE RK www.stat.gov.kz , forecast of the Joint-Stock Company "Institute of Economic Research" of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

According to the forecast of labor market indicators, the planned trends in the previous decade in terms of the labor force and the employed population will continue, and by 2030 the workforce is expected to increase to 10.4 million people.

It is expected that over the next decade, employment will remain at the level of 2017 (95.1%), and the share of the workforce in the total population will decrease to 50.1% by 2030.

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10 The labor force is the part of the population at the age set for measuring the labor force that provides the supply of labor for the production of goods and services. The number of workers includes those employed in all types of economic activities and the unemployed

In order to provide jobs for the growing population, it is necessary to continue implementing government programs to stimulate productive employment and the development of SMEs, open new industries, and provide training and retraining for specialists. Since the beginning of the implementation of measures to ensure productive employment, 5.9 thousand people have been resettled in the country. (Akmola - 0.25 thousand people, East Kazakhstan - 0.97, Kostanay - 1, Pavlodar - 2.1, North Kazakhstan - 1.5), of which 2.9 thousand people are able-bodied. At the same time, 1,9 thousand people were employed.

In terms of employment (Figure 5), in 2018, compared with 2010, there was a decrease in the number of people employed in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, while the number of people employed in the service sector increased.

By 2030, a structural change in the employed population is expected in the context of industries, the transition from the commodity sector to the service sector. The main outflow of the employed population is projected in agriculture due to technological re-equipment and digitalization of the economy, while most of the released employed population may move to the construction and transport sectors due to infrastructural and technological development, as well as to the education sector due to the development of VET.

Regionally, the largest outflow of workers will occur in regions whose economies are based on the agricultural sector, including Almaty, Kostanay, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions. In this regard, these regions need to take measures to diversify their economies, including taking into account the need to use the potential in the agro-industrial complex.

In the industrial and construction sectors, from 2010 to 2018, the number of employed people decreased in the West Kazakhstan region (by 6.7%), in the Pavlodar region (by 1.0%) and the Kyzylorda region (by 0.4%). An active increase in employment in these industries was noted in Aktobe region (by 59.6%), Turkestan region, Shymkent (by 36.6%) and Astana (by 35.2%).

The educational system, first of all, must change along with global trends and adapt best to them, especially since the development of society and the economy in the current conditions depends crucially on human capital, in particular education.

Technologies, equipment, products, methods and forms of labor organization, the management system, the main factors of production, the levels of specialists, education, and so on have already changed radically. The educational and scientific system should be rebuilt according to the model of advanced countries and universities, moving from a national system to a global one providing high-quality educational services. Changing conditions and demands on people's skills and competencies will require continuous learning within the framework of the "Lifelong Learning" concept.

Conclusion: Based on the results of the analysis of the demographic situation in Kazakhstan, a number of problems have been identified, among which the key ones are: a decrease in the birth rate, an aging population, an outflow of the able-bodied population, and the release of agricultural workers. Significant disparities remain between regions in terms of natural population growth and migration. Solving these problems will reduce the demographic burden on the able-bodied population.

An analysis of the current demographic situation, as well as its prospective estimates, indicate that there is a significant regional differentiation in the demographic development of Kazakhstan.

Due to the prevailing regional differences in the level of natural population growth, as well as taking into account the attracting/pushing factors of migration, regions can be divided into 3 groups according to the level of demographic development.

The group of regions where the largest population growth is expected includes Almaty, Atyrau, Kyzylorda, Mangystau, Turkestan regions, the cities of Astana, Almaty and Shymkent.

Population growth trends will require measures to provide housing, social, transport and communication infrastructure ahead of schedule, and create jobs, while not worsening the environmental condition. It is necessary to continue work on stimulating labor mobility from the southern regions.

The second group includes regions where stable population growth is predicted (Aktobe, Zhambyl, West Kazakhstan regions) and a slight decrease in its rate (Akmola, Karaganda and Pavlodar regions).

In these regions, it is important to maintain high rates of natural population growth and reduce migration. Measures should be taken to improve the demographic situation, aimed at increasing the birth rate, by strengthening social protection and providing for families with children.

Considering that for Kazakhstan, fertility is the only component that gives growth for demographic reproduction, fertility issues are one of the key links in the development of socio-demographic policy in the regions.

In this regard, it is necessary to take measures for an in-depth study of fertility and reproductive behavior in the context of regions and ethnic groups, and the development of regional demographic development programs in Kazakhstan.

The package of measures should also include:

monitoring the adaptation and integration of ethnic immigrants, including those who have received the status of "Oralmans", and those who have received the citizenship of the Republic of Kazakhstan/have left the status of "Oralmans", in order to better understand the reasons for the decline in the attractiveness of Kazakhstan for ethnic Kazakhs abroad;

creating equal conditions for local staff and "expats" when hiring and working in certain sectors of the economy, including in terms of remuneration;

the development of the domestic market of educational services in higher education, increasing its competitiveness and accessibility to solve the problems of growing foreign educational emigration from Kazakhstan.

An analysis of the current demographic situation shows that in the future, a number of regions of the country will face the problem of the release and intersectoral flow of labor resources. To this end, it is necessary to take measures to reorient the personnel training system to meet new market requirements by attracting new qualified personnel from the education system, as well as through retraining and retraining of personnel.

It is necessary to stimulate labor mobility of the population in agglomerations and FGR.

The problem of personnel release in agriculture should be solved taking into account the specifics and assessment of the labor market in each region.

Employment issues should also be addressed through the development of mass entrepreneurship and the provision of appropriate government support.

An important area of the country's social policy in the future will remain the provision of social support for women during the period of caring for children, large families and people with disabilities.

To solve the above-mentioned tasks, it is necessary to ensure effective regulation of socio-demographic processes through the formation of a basic (national) demographic policy until 2030.

1.3. Analysis of challenges and trends affecting the territorial and spatial development of the country

All countries of the world are affected by global and regional factors. Kazakhstan should consider global trends, including within the framework of integration associations, as external challenges and, at the same time, opportunities to strengthen the country's position in world markets.

Taking into account the megatrends reflected in the Development Strategy of Kazakhstan until 2050, the Concept of Kazakhstan's entry into the top 30 most developed countries in the world, and the Strategic Plan for 2025, challenges and trends affecting the country's spatial development have been identified.

The influence of global challenges and trends is taken into account in determining the strategic directions of development of the country and regions.

Climate change

Climate change has irreversible global consequences for all countries of the world. Global warming, air pollution, soil and water resources - all this dramatically affects the current human settlement system and the global trade environment.

Recognizing the risks of climate change to people and the economy, it is necessary to take measures to develop a green economy and protect the environment. According to the 7th National Communication, the average annual air temperature is expected to increase by 1.5-1.7°C by 2030 and by 2.4-2.6°C by 2050 compared to the base period (1980-1999).

There is a risk of reducing the average annual volume of Kazakhstan's water resources to 72.4 km3 by 2030 (currently 100.5 km3).

These climate changes will have an impact on the development of agriculture and its productivity, as well as on public health and the provision of drinking water. In this regard, it is necessary to take measures to adapt the priority sectors of the economy to the ongoing climate change.

Due to limited water resources, the issue of transboundary river allocation is very important for Kazakhstan, as well as the subsequent development of regulations and regulation of the balanced use of river and lake basins for the needs of the population, agriculture and industry. In the long term, the greatest risk is the restrictions on the development of industries that require high water consumption, in particular, the mining and metallurgical complex and coal-fired power.

The problem of the Aral Sea remains relevant, which affects all countries of the region and has an impact on the ecology of Eurasia. In this regard, it is necessary to develop mechanisms for water management regulation, taking into account ensuring environmental sustainability and stable investments from all States in the region.

There is a risk of exacerbating the problem of land desertification. In the long term, it is possible to increase the negative effects of natural disasters, including floods.

The country's territory is subject to such various types of emergency situations as floods, mudslides, avalanches, landslides, landslides, earthquakes, forest fires and others.

In order to prevent and protect the population from natural and man-made emergencies, it is necessary to implement organizational, preventive and engineering measures. Measures should be aimed at developing infrastructure to counter natural disasters, including seasonal floods and floods, mudslides, landslides and avalanches, fires, earthquakes, and the medical and sanitary consequences of emergencies throughout the country. It is also necessary to consider improving the system of forecasting the risk of natural disasters, including floods, which will allow timely warning of the population and will provide an opportunity to prepare for unexpected consequences using high technologies such as geographic information system and radars.

The economy of Kazakhstan is characterized by an excessive energy intensity of the economy, which requires the modernization of existing infrastructure and the full use of the country's potential in energy conservation and energy efficiency.

The green economy has great potential as a sector that generates new jobs, including in rural areas. Renewable energy creates 3 times more jobs than traditional energy.11 This proves that the development of renewable energy has not only economic and environmental benefits, but also social ones. According to the forecast of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA12), by 2030, 24 million people will be employed in the clean energy sector in the world13.

Economic globalization

Protectionism, the intensification of the competition for talent, as well as trade wars are creating serious global challenges to the global economy.

For every country in the world, including Kazakhstan, the issue of global competitiveness of the national economy, its regions and cities is acute. Spatial development is an important process of stimulating inflows of foreign direct investment, coordinating policies in such sectors as transport, agriculture and the environment.

According to forecasts by Standard Chartered14, Bloomberg15, Asia's share will be 35% of global GDP by 2030. Due to Kazakhstan's geographical proximity to these markets, integration into global value chains is necessary, including in the context of integration processes within the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter - EAEU).

Integration within the EAEU will have an impact on the economy of Kazakhstan, including the creation of common markets for gas, oil and petroleum products, which provide for the non-application of export customs duties and other restrictions in mutual trade.

For Kazakhstan, within the framework of the EAEU, it is necessary to address the challenges of removing administrative barriers and other restrictions on the access of Kazakhstani goods to the markets of the EAEU member states.

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11 https://www.e2.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Е2-2019-Clean-Jobs-America.pdf

12 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

13 https://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE Jobs_Annual_Review_2017.pdf

14 Standard Chartered is a multinational corporation providing financial services

15 Bloomberg is one of the leading providers of financial information for professional financial market participants

Great opportunities within the framework of the Belt and Road initiative 16 in Kazakhstan are represented in the field of transit infrastructure management - two transport routes: the container route Ukraine - Bulgaria - Georgia - Azerbaijan - Kazakhstan - China and the highway Russia - Kyzylorda - Shymkent - Almaty - Urumqi. It is also necessary to take into account the negative consequences of a possible reduction in demand for Chinese goods in Europe and the maintenance of infrastructure facilities.

For Kazakhstan, in the long term, a slowdown in the globalization process may lead to a decrease in the volume of attracted foreign investment, technology transfer and a reduction in trade turnover.

Uzbekistan's new economic policy, aimed at improving relations with neighboring countries, may have an impact on the development of border regions and a number of industries. Increased competition for foreign investments, qualified personnel, and markets for goods is expected.

Strengthening regional integration will also contribute to the intensification of migration flows, primarily from Central Asian countries, which will place special demands on Kazakhstan's migration policy.

A challenge for Kazakhstan in the context of economic and food security remains the high share of imports, in particular in the food sector, which requires systematic measures to protect national interests, taking into account the increased competitiveness of products.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is changing the structure of the global economy and opening up new technological opportunities and entire fields of science.

For Kazakhstan, in the long term, a slowdown in the globalization process may lead to a decrease in the volume of attracted foreign investment, technology transfer and a reduction in trade turnover.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is changing the structure of the global economy and opening up new technological opportunities and entire fields of science.

Digitalization and changes in technological platforms have a significant impact on traditional industries, replacing low- and medium-skilled personnel with robots.

In the near future, artificial intelligence will become an indispensable option in everyday and social life. At the same time, the issues of human capital development and cybersecurity are the most relevant on the global agenda. The growing influence of information and communication technologies, scientific research in high-tech sectors of industry and services, as well as Big Data17 technologies have formed a new direction of science - the knowledge economy.

In Kazakhstan, in the context of the fourth industrial revolution, it is necessary to consistently introduce new technologies in order to improve the quality of life of the population and the environment.

The Smart City principles make it possible to more accurately assess the needs of the population and, accordingly, contribute to accelerating economic growth by reducing costs, reducing risks and facilitating the daily movements and interactions of citizens.

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16 The proposal of the United projects "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" put forward by the PRC in the 2010s

17 Big Data - big data processing technology

In the long term, the use of new materials can radically reduce the demand for ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy products.

A negative effect of technological progress may be an imbalance in the labor market, which must be maintained through the training and retraining of new personnel.

Demographic challenges

Urbanization and migration are increasing globally. The introduction of new technologies and economies of scale lead to an increase in interregional and cross-border migration. In particular, the number of cross-border migrants worldwide has more than tripled to 250 million people.

At the same time, the largest population growth until 2030 is expected in large cities and agglomerations. Cities provide more than 70% of global GDP and a similar share in job creation.

In developed countries, there is a tendency for the population to shrink and age, while many developing countries are experiencing a surge in the birth rate.

Population growth will lead to an increase in demand for food, water, and energy resources. This is an opportunity for Kazakhstan to use its potential to meet the demand of the global economy.

In Kazakhstan, the demographic burden on the working-age population will increase, the share of which will decrease mainly due to an increase in the retirement age population. This will happen against the background of economic development, improved quality and increased life expectancy.

At the same time, within the framework of the "silver economy" concept, manufacturers of goods and services for the elderly will have a new opportunity for growth. Globally, the "silver economy" will create millions of additional jobs and increase GDP by 2-2.5% (according to calculations by Accenture18 and Oxford Economics19).

Section 2. Directions of spatial development

2.1. Purpose and objectives, main approaches of territorial and spatial development of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Considering that the Forecast Scheme is being developed in order to implement the Strategic Plan 2025, all initiatives within the framework of the seven reforms were analyzed.

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18 Accenture is a global company, one of the leaders in the global market of professional services and digital technologies

19 Oxford Economics is an English consulting company, a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis

During the analysis, initiatives with a spatial and regional aspect were identified, which were reflected in the Forecast Scheme.

The purpose of the Forecast Scheme is to create conditions for improving the well-being of the population based on realizing the development potential of the country's regions.

The development of the Forecast Scheme is based on the following principles:

1) ensuring the territorial integrity of the country, regardless of the forms of cross-border cooperation and economic integration;

2) harmonization of economic growth and environmental protection - basic standards of quality of life should be ensured throughout the country, taking into account the preservation of the ecosystem and compliance with environmental requirements;

3) the rationality of the population settlement structure, taking into account the "people to infrastructure" model, is the creation of economic conditions in settlements with economic potential and development prospects, including through the improvement of the administrative and territorial structure (consolidation, consolidation, reassignment) in order to improve internal and external relations;

4) the independence of the regions in choosing development priorities, which means activating the potential of the regions by mobilizing factors of production and bringing initiatives "from the bottom up" with top-down priorities. The regions' independence will consist in addressing issues of regional and local importance, including business support, investment attraction, employment promotion, infrastructure development and human resource management. Strategic issues such as ensuring defense capability and national security, law and order, the unified tax, budget, transport, communications and energy, social policy, and a number of others will be preserved at the national level. At the same time, issues related to the implementation of major investment projects will be necessarily coordinated with the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The following approaches to spatial development will be used to implement these principles:

1) development of "growth points" based on managed urbanization;

2) ensuring a basic quality of life based on a system of regional standards.

Approach 1. Development of "growth points" based on managed urbanization

An analysis of global economic development shows that territorial imbalances in income and production levels are inevitable and are a consequence of uneven economic growth. The experience of successful development shows that it occurs in conditions of territorial concentration of production.

The essence of the approach is that due to the measures taken to develop "growth points", there will be a "spill-over" of economic activity and prosperity to the rest of the territories due to economic integration.

Attractive conditions should be created in the "growth points" to attract and accommodate talents.

In the context of budget constraints, it is necessary to concentrate labor, financial and production resources in "growth points" - agglomerations, cities, and strongholds within the framework of the Federal State Budget.

The spatial development of Kazakhstan in the coming decade should be aimed at increasing economic and demographic density.

According to the methodology of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (hereinafter - the OECD), "growth points" mean specific settlements in the G20 format, of which 18 are defined in Kazakhstan - mainly large, large cities and other settlements included in the zone of daily labor migration (the population in the 18 FGR is about 11.2 million people).

An assessment of the potential of socio-economic development will be carried out in relation to mono- and small towns. Mono- and small towns under the influence of large agglomerations will be considered within the framework of the economic systems of these agglomerations.

There is a potential for economic integration between large and small cities due to the localization of production on the FRG's periphery.

The spatial development of Kazakhstan in the coming decade should be aimed at increasing economic and demographic density.

There is a potential for economic integration between large and small cities due to the localization of production on the FRG's periphery.

The policy of "managed urbanization" will consist in taking preventive measures (the principle of "people to infrastructure") in response to the massive influx of rural population into the cities. In this regard, such tools as integrated management of land resources and transport planning, investment in social and engineering infrastructure to meet the needs of the population and businesses, and the expansion of green areas using green technologies will be used. Increasing the level of urbanization in the long term will both expand the contribution of the service sector to the economy and create new types of services that ensure stable job growth. The development of the service sector will make it possible to employ workers who are being released from other sectors of the economy, as well as young professionals entering the labor market for the first time.

The growth points development strategy has been implemented in developed and successfully developing countries, including the EU, South Korea, China, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and others.

A functional urban area is an analogue of agglomeration formations at the regional level. At the same time, the FGR unites: a) a core city with a population of at least 100 thousand people and a density of at least 1 million people per 1 square kilometer (while not being part of another FGR or a single-industry town); b) surrounding settlements with at least 15% of the working population participating in the daily pendulum migration to the core city

Approach 2. Ensuring a basic quality of life in the regions based on a system of regional standards

Spatial planning is an important tool for ensuring sustainable development and improving the quality of life, including education and healthcare, public safety, access to quality drinking water, electricity, the Internet, and a clean environment, regardless of the economic opportunities of the regions.

The system of regional standards provides for specific requirements and indicators of accessibility of social benefits and public services, provision of transport, cultural, sports, business, industrial, and digital infrastructure for urban and rural settlements.

Taking into account the increasing needs, the indicators of regional standards for urban areas will cover more areas than in rural areas.

High standards of quality of life will allow cities to compete with other economic centers of the bordering states.

The low potential of socio-economic development of small-scale rural settlements suggests the inexpediency of building expensive infrastructure.

In this regard, it is necessary to stimulate the use of less costly, innovative mechanisms for providing basic services to the population, which will contribute to the territorial alignment of basic living standards. For example, maximizing the use of groundwater potential to provide drinking water supply to the SNP using block modules. There is a great potential for the use of renewable energy sources to provide energy supply to remote, small-scale farming enterprises (solar panels, hybrid installations, etc.).

Further development of rural areas is impossible without effective development of local self-government, increasing the economic independence of local self-government. Starting in 2020, it is planned to introduce an independent budget everywhere at the level of a city of regional significance, village, village, rural district.

The lack of an economic base for implementing an independent budget in a number of rural districts may become an obstacle to ensuring a basic quality of life in the regions. Thus, according to the results of the analysis,21 it is not advisable to introduce an independent budget in all rural districts due to the lack of economic prospects - small population, migration outflow, lack of business entities and a tax base. In this regard, local executive bodies need to reassign and consolidate rural districts with low socio-economic potential.

21 Of the results of the 2017 study "Expert and analytical support for improving regional policy, including issues of local governance" conducted by the Joint-Stock Company "Institute of Economic Research" of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan for development with the nearest rural districts on the principle of "weak to strong".

Ensuring the basic quality of life of the population will also be facilitated by the decentralization of powers in terms of transferring a number of functions to the local level, including granting the right to create communal organizations that facilitate the implementation by the offices of rural district akims of their functions to address issues of local importance.

As part of fiscal decentralization, it is necessary to transfer part of taxes, fees and other mandatory payments to the local government level. Improving the system of inter-budgetary relations, distributing transfers, and subventions will also encourage regions to use internal resources to expand their tax base.

The approach to ensuring a basic quality of life in the regions has been applied in countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and India.

In general, new approaches to spatial development will contribute to improving the quality of life in cities and remote areas.

The use of these approaches in solving the following tasks is a prerequisite for achieving the goal of the Forecast Scheme.

Task 1. Development of regions and cities, rural and border territories, taking into account competitive advantages and prospects

One of the main priorities in the coming decade will be to increase economic complexity and create competitive export-oriented specializations in the regions.

To this end, measures will be taken in the regions to realize the potential of basic industries with further deepening of specialization through the development of specialized factors, including science, technology and innovation.

This will require the application of new approaches to spatial organization of the territory. The global trend shows that in the modern world, individual cities and highly urbanized territories are becoming drivers of economic growth and human capital development.

In this regard, the development of "growth points" will become a priority form of spatial organization of the territory. High-tech and knowledge-intensive industries are developing in cities where knowledge, people and capital are concentrated. In this regard, measures to stimulate urbanization processes will continue to be implemented, including the potential for agglomeration development of large and medium-sized cities. The development of agglomerations with centers in the cities of Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and Aktobe will continue. Work will be carried out to stimulate the formation of a GRF around the regional centers and the city of Semey.

At the same time, special attention will be paid to ensuring the international competitiveness of large and medium-sized cities. In order to identify existing problems and priorities for long-term development, strategies for the development of large cities will be developed.

In the coming decade, approaches to the development of mono- and small towns will be radically revised. Based on the analysis of the potential of socio-economic development, differentiated measures will be developed for these cities.

It is necessary to take measures to realize the potential of the border territories as the most important zones of international economic cooperation. Comprehensive measures will be implemented to develop the border infrastructure. Special attention will be paid to the development of border towns as external gates and strongholds of the National Security Council. It is necessary to introduce the benefits and services of the regional standards system as a matter of priority in cross-border SNPs.

The rural development policy will focus on the priority development of the mainstay areas. It is necessary to develop measures for the integration of rural areas into the economic system of cities. To this end, large-scale work will be carried out in the coming decade to develop the social, transport and engineering infrastructure of these settlements.

Special attention will also be paid to the development of human capital, improvement of the environment and protection of natural resources.

Task 2. Promoting the resettlement of the population, taking into account managed urbanization

Managed urbanization is the provision of living conditions and adaptation of incoming labor resources and their involvement in the local economy. It should be noted that managed urbanization will be carried out not only in the interests of the urban population, but the entire population of the country.

In the coming decade, the process of managed urbanization will be accompanied by improvements in urban planning and urban planning, land use, infrastructure development plans, modernization of the urban economy, as well as the introduction of tools to control urban sprawl.

Measures will be taken to increase the availability of housing, including rental housing. The formation of high-quality road infrastructure and modern transport links will contribute to the involvement of rural areas in the economy of large and large cities, as well as increase the mobility of the population.

The mobility of the population and enterprises affects the structure of land use and spatial relationships.

The basic human needs that affect the settlement structure are related to the availability of places to live, work, education, services, and recreation.

Any territory is divided into spaces of daily activity, where the population is constantly moving along the route.: "place of residence - place of work - daily services." For example, 250 thousand cars enter the city of Almaty every day, and about 100 thousand cars enter the city of Astana.

Further settlement of the population in urban and rural areas will be determined to a greater extent not by natural, but by economic and environmental factors. Further population concentration in "growth points" and in places with favorable living conditions will continue.

When developing deposits of natural resources, the shift method should be widely used without the formation of new settlements.

To maintain permanent settlement, all rural settlements must have a road network in satisfactory condition, suitable for year-round traffic.

The population should be able to connect at an affordable price to electricity, water and gas supply, and the Internet. A person should be able to receive basic services within walking distance or have access to them at the nearest administrative center.

Task 3. Infrastructural provision of territories

In achieving the goals of the country's spatial development, a special role is assigned to the territorial-connecting and basic infrastructure, including transport, social, communication, energy and others.

Prospective resettlement of the population should be carried out taking into account the development of transport and communication infrastructure, which will form the spatial framework of the settlement structure and stimulate the implementation of the "people to infrastructure" principle.

In the implementation of the initiative "Improving the quality of highways and developing roadside services" of the Strategic Plan 2025, significant amounts of funding will be allocated to the maintenance, repair and reconstruction of local roads, which will increase the mobility of people and goods. The layout of promising service facilities along highways of international and national importance will increase employment in the regions.

Also, as part of the implementation of the initiative "Continuing the development of transport infrastructure based on the ray principle" of the Strategic Plan-2025, an integrated suburban transport infrastructure will be created to ensure communication between cities and suburbs. Taking into account the expected urbanization and population growth, special attention will be paid to the development of transport links between the "growth points". Thus, the regional centers will be connected to the hub cities of Astana, Almaty, Aktobe and Shymkent according to the "beam" principle.

Effective spatial development will be facilitated by the development of a network of local roads. In the coming decade, infrastructure gaps within the regions will have to be completely eliminated.

The SNPs will be connected by paved roads to the centers of rural districts and district centers, while district centers, mono- and small towns within the regions will be connected to regional centers.

All modes of transport must effectively interact and complement each other in order to meet the needs of the population, business and transit potential.

According to the system of regional standards22, highways must be in satisfactory condition with proper maintenance and accessible to the public, regardless of the time of year.

In large cities, improving the organization of public transport should complement and partially displace the growing automobile traffic.

The mainstay SNPs should also be priorities for investing in the necessary infrastructure, which will serve as an additional impetus to improving the quality of life in rural areas.

Plans for the development of social infrastructure in the coming decade should be linked to the demographic forecast, the population's need for services, the development of the private sector, PPP and the prospects for the development of settlements.

As part of the Green Technology Development initiative of the Strategic Plan 2025, various infrastructure projects will be implemented in the regions that reduce energy intensity and use renewable energy sources in both urban and rural areas. In regions experiencing problems with energy supply, the authorized state body will take measures to select "green projects" for financing, including through the issuance of "green" bonds by the Astana International Financial Center.

In order to reduce digital inequality in rural areas, as part of the "Development of Information and Communication Infrastructure" initiative of the Strategic Plan 2025, high-speed Internet access will be provided for an additional 1,300 rural households by 2030. In order to ensure the rationality of budget spending, it is necessary to take into account their economic potential and the forecast for the number and migration of the population when selecting reference SNPs.

It will also allow for the integration of all databases of government agencies at the national and local levels, and the "digitization" of land, water and other resources using the capabilities of geographic information systems. Monitoring of qualitative changes in natural resources should be carried out on an ongoing basis. As a result, the availability of various electronic government services and services throughout the country will increase, which will reduce unnecessary movement and expenses of the population and businesses.

The 22 Regional Standard is a list of goods and services of a social, infrastructural and environmental nature and requirements for them, designed to increase their accessibility in both urban and rural areas in the context of improving the quality of life in general.

Achieving this goal implies a commitment to a systematic approach to infrastructure development, which requires coordination of actions by central state and local executive bodies to provide the population with regional standards in all localities.

Task 4. Ensuring basic standards of quality of life for the population, regardless of the economic opportunities of the regions and the place of residence

As part of this task, it is assumed that the requirements of the regional standards system will be implemented for various settlements, from support villages to cities of national significance.

Different standards have been developed for each level of an administrative-territorial unit. For the four agglomerations, the regional standards correspond to the international level. They are provided with the maximum package of social standards and the most advanced achievements in engineering and transport infrastructure (geoinformation technologies, spatial information infrastructure, Smart City, and others). This will allow agglomerations to compete internationally for investments, resources, talents, and more, as well as grow into world-class cities. The centers of the FGR will ensure the highest standards in the republic, not lower than the level of large cities in neighboring countries.

As part of the initiative "Implementation of the Smart City Concept" of the Strategic Plan-2025, the Smart City concept will be implemented in all regional centers and cities of national significance based on the experience of Astana and Akkol, providing for the use of high-tech solutions for the rational use and management of resources.

As part of the implementation of the "Ensuring Access to drinking Water" initiative of the Strategic Plan for 2025, budget financing for the construction of new water supply and sanitation facilities and the reconstruction of existing facilities will be increased. New financing mechanisms for the construction, reconstruction and modernization of engineering infrastructure should be developed for large and large cities.

A number of systemic measures will be implemented to ensure basic standards of quality of life for the population.:

1) central government agencies will review industry standards for the network of organizations, requirements for the quality of services, taking into account modern conditions and regional specifics;

2) local executive bodies, based on updated industry standards, must provide the population with basic standards of quality of life.;

3) it is necessary to review methodological approaches to calculating transfers based on the reduction of gaps in the provision of services and benefits of the basic standard of quality of life of the population between regions, within regions - between urban and rural areas. At the same time, the calculation of transfers should be not only compensatory, but also stimulating for the regions. This will help create strong incentives for local governments to more effectively support economic development.

Task 5. Human capital development

In general, the implementation of the provisions of the Forecast Scheme and relevant measures for spatial development should create conditions for the development of human capital in the country.

Sustainable spatial development in the future will require the development of human capital with high-quality and in-demand skills.

For the development of human capital, it is necessary to focus on ensuring access to high-quality educational services throughout the country. The Government's efforts in the coming decade will be aimed at reducing gaps in access to education, ensuring productive employment, reducing unemployment, increasing labor mobility, and increasing household incomes.

The curricula of secondary education will include STEM23 elements aimed at the development of new technologies, scientific innovations, mathematical modeling, programming, robotics and initial technological training.

In the coming years, the education system needs to address the reduction of low-grade schools in rural areas, primarily general and basic secondary education, without affecting low-grade primary schools. In the future, the work should be aimed at the final elimination of emergency and three-shift schools.

At the same time, in accordance with the needs of the labor market, work will continue on the development of the VET system, the creation of a school-college complex in villages, the profiling of urban VET organizations, as well as the provision of free access to the first working profession, including through coursework.

Measures will be taken to improve the quality of education in the regions. It is necessary to ensure the emergence of one competitive university and a network of VET organizations in each region with the modernization of the material and technical base of 20 universities and 180 colleges, which will improve the quality of personnel training.

The priority areas of human capital development will be:

1) ensuring accessibility and inclusivity of the education system, training personnel with high-quality and in-demand skills.

23 Science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM) - used in determining educational methodology and choosing a curriculum in schools in order to increase competitiveness in the field of science and technology development

Personnel training will be linked to the long-term needs of economic sectors, including in the field of renewable energy development.;

2) promoting productive employment.

The development of labor mobility of the population will facilitate the effective flow of labor from low-productive sectors of the economy to high-performance industries. As part of the initiative "Support for employees released as a result of modernization and digitalization of enterprises" of the Strategic Plan-2025, joint roadmaps are expected to be implemented in the regions, providing for the creation of new jobs (including through the provision of long-term orders by large businesses and other assistance in the development of demanded products at SMEs in the region), retraining and other measures employment promotion.

The promotion of population mobility in voluntary resettlement will continue within the framework of the "Assistance to Voluntary Resettlement" initiative of the Strategic Plan 2025. Government support will consist in providing subsidies to displaced persons to reimburse the annual costs of renting housing and paying for utilities, as well as measures to find employment in a new place of residence after resettlement.

In order to ensure productive employment, within the framework of the initiative "Stimulating the organization of self-employed cooperatives in the agricultural sector" of the Strategic Plan 2025, measures will be taken to create conditions and provide state support for the maximum involvement of the self-employed population in agricultural cooperation with the participation of existing agricultural producers.

2.2. Prospects of territorial and spatial development of the regions of Kazakhstan, taking into account managed urbanization

Development of competitive economic specialization of regions (macroregions)

The established economic specialization of the regions, taking into account geographical, natural, socio-economic conditions, should become the basis for further development of competitive advantages and deepening specialization in the global market.

The competitive economic specialization of the regions should be based on the development of basic industries with further specialization in the production of high-value-added products.

At the same time, competitive advantages can be developed by creating conditions for the introduction of new technologies and innovations, which allows producing countries to occupy new market niches even in conditions of a lack of natural resources and factors. For example, Israel, having a shortage of natural resources, especially water and arable land, occupies a leading position in the world in the export of agricultural products.

The current grouping of macroregions takes into account their established economic specialization only within the borders of the country. At the same time, within the framework of the Forecast Scheme, the grouping of regions was carried out taking into account the zones of influence, the geographical structure of exports, and sales markets for Kazakhstani goods and services outside the country. The promising competitive economic specialization of the regions, the settlement system and the nature of market relations are shown in table 2.

For all macroregions, in order to deepen economic specialization, it is necessary to strengthen the link between production and educational institutions of research and applied education.

The deepening of Kazakhstan's economic specialization should be accompanied by a constant assessment of potential sales markets in order to adapt to changes in global markets.

Table 2 - Prospective competitive economic specialization of the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The prospective location of production facilities in the regions will be closely linked to their economic specialization and an increase in the share of manufacturing in the country's economy.

The calculation of the coefficient of economic specialization for the period from 2010 to 2017 showed 24 which industries have already developed (coefficient >1), and which industries can potentially increase their share in the long term (coefficient <1).

Mining regions: Atyrau, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, Mangystau and Kyzylorda regions.

Atyrau region

In the future, it is necessary to develop industries that are not related to resource extraction, in which there is a positive trend in the growth of specialization.: construction (1.45), accommodation and catering services (1.10), administrative and support services (2.42), professional, scientific and technical activities (1.86). In addition, measures should be taken to develop the manufacturing industry.

Aktobe region

The region needs to pay attention to the development of the manufacturing industry, the specialization coefficient of which has increased from 0.7 to

1.3. Positive dynamics are also observed in agriculture, forestry and fisheries (1.01-1.13) and in the transport and warehousing industry (0.99-1.17). In the future, the transport and warehousing industry may have a significant impact on the region's economy.

West Kazakhstan region

In addition, the region needs to take measures to support the development of agriculture, forestry and fisheries (0.75). The region needs to pay attention to the development of the water supply and sewerage industry.

24 Calculated according to the data of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The last year of 2017 is the system of control over waste collection and distribution, which tends to increase from 0.57 to 0.99 over the analyzed period.

Mangystau region

In the future, in order to move away from the mono-orientation of the economy, it is necessary to implement measures to diversify industrial production. For example, in the development of construction (0.93), support for initiatives in projects for the development of the manufacturing industry, in which there is a small amount of specialization (0.25).

Kyzylorda region

In the future, it is necessary to develop the manufacturing industry (0.42), as well as the transport and warehousing industry (1.77), which has a positive coefficient of specialization. Support projects for the development of agriculture, forestry and fisheries (0.87).

Industrial regions: East Kazakhstan, Karaganda and Pavlodar regions.

East Kazakhstan region

The region's economy is balanced: industry (1.19), manufacturing (1.83), agriculture, forestry and fisheries (2.00), transport and warehousing (1.27). In the future, it is necessary to continue the development of the processing industry in order to deepen specialization, as well as to develop the "economy of simple things."

Karaganda region

Despite the role of the industrial region, agriculture, forestry and fisheries are developing in the region, and the share of the region's industry in the GDP structure increased by 1.6% points from 2010 to 2017.

In the future, the region needs to develop production in the "economy of simple things", as well as support manufacturers in industry in order to deepen processing and complicate the range of products.

Pavlodar region

The region's economy specializes in manufacturing goods (2.53). Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are also actively developing (1.09). Transport and warehousing (1.66), as well as construction (1.14), play a significant role. The prospects for deepening specialization are associated with the increasing complexity of the product line due to the implementation of initiatives in the manufacturing industry and agriculture.

Industrial and agricultural regions: Akmola, Almaty,

Zhambyl, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions.

Akmola region

The region has traditionally specialized in the production of agricultural products (3.26). At the same time, the role of manufacturing (1.69), construction (1.24), transport and warehousing (1.01) has increased significantly in recent years. The prospects for further specialization will depend on the increasing complexity of the range of manufactured goods and the processing of agricultural products.

Almaty region

The region has a significant workforce, which will have an impact on the economic development of the region. The development of the manufacturing industry requires further complication of the range of manufactured goods, which must be competitive in regional and foreign markets.

Zhambyl region

The advantage of the economy of the Zhambyl region is the production of agricultural products, which has a high coefficient of specialization (2.3). At the same time, there is an increase in the role of the processing industry (1.0). Despite the specialization in agriculture, the sectors of transport and warehousing (2.1) and construction (1.3) have a significant impact on economic growth. In the region, it is necessary to support projects within the framework of the "economy of simple things", increasing the complexity of the product line.

Kostanay region

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries in the region's economy have a high coefficient of specialization (2.8). At the same time, industrial production plays an increasingly important role with the strengthening of the manufacturing industry (1,2), transport and warehousing (1,4).

In the future, the region's economy will have an industrial and agrarian character. At the same time, it is necessary to support projects for the development of the "economy of simple things" and the production of competitive goods.

North Kazakhstan region

The region has a high degree of specialization in agriculture, forestry and fisheries (5,29). The role of manufacturing industry (0.93), transport and warehousing (0.96) is gradually increasing.

The region needs to develop its competitive advantages, taking into account the development of the manufacturing industry and taking advantage of its border location.

Turkestan region

The region's economic structure clearly shows specialization in agriculture, forestry and fisheries (2.1), manufacturing (1.7), transport and warehousing (1.3).

The advantages of the region are the presence of a significant number of labor resources, as well as the border location. The development of domestic and foreign markets will contribute to the growth of demand for goods produced in the region.

High-tech regions: Astana, Almaty and Shymkent.

Astana city

The capital of Kazakhstan specializes in construction (1.76), accommodation and catering services (1.79), information and communications (2.55), financial and insurance activities (1.44), professional, scientific and technical activities (2.6). It is predicted that the city will actively develop the service sector, innovations and elements of the post-industrial economy.

The city of Almaty

The city clearly specializes in wholesale and retail trade; car and motorcycle repairs (2.12), accommodation and catering services (1.31), information and communications (2.41), financial and insurance activities (2.47), professional, scientific and technical activities (1.49).

In the future, the city's economy should grow due to innovative products, which should be facilitated by a high concentration of specialized research institutes and international companies. There are also prospects for increasing the distribution potential.

Shymkent city

Population growth will contribute to the development of

entrepreneurship and manufacturing industry with elements of "Industry 4.0".

The company has prospects in the development of the transport industry and

warehousing, realization of transit potential, organization of a transportation hub.

Strategic directions of regional development

As world experience shows, in all developed countries, economic reforms were accompanied by the development of basic industries, followed by a shift to deepening specialization.

For example, South Korea has transformed from a backward country in 60 years.

from an agricultural country to a state with a high-tech economy. Germany, France and the United Kingdom continue to be powerful industrial centers in Europe due to the increasing complexity of basic industries and the creation of their high-tech sub-sectors.

The historically established specialization of the country's regions, the rich mineral resource base and natural resources, the geographical location of the country, the significant accumulated experience and human resources in the basic sectors of the country create a foundation for the complication of regional sectoral structures of the economy and the formation of new competitive specializations of the regions.

In this regard, the promising specialization of the country's regions will be aimed at structural economic diversification and productivity growth.

The priorities of the economic specialization of the regions in the long term can be determined based on the level of development and diversification of the economies of the regions, as well as the existing industries.

For regions with post-industrial economies (the cities of Astana and Almaty), the priorities of development should be the structural and technological modernization of production, primarily through the creation of new high-tech, knowledge-intensive industries, renovation and reconstruction based on new, clean technologies operating to increase the competitiveness of the urban economy. The development of information systems, the creation of new production facilities for the production of medicines and drugs, advanced types of building materials and structures, environmentally friendly food, electronics, and household appliances should become priority areas of specialization. It is necessary to stimulate innovation, develop research structures, support research and development activities, and form technoparks and technopolises.

For the country's mining regions, the main priority in the future should be to increase economic complexity. In this regard, the priority task for the future is the diversification of the economy related to deep oil refining, the development of manufacturing industries, services, transport and logistics. The implementation of investment projects will be aimed at diversifying the structure of the local economy and modernizing existing industries, which will reduce dependence on traditional industries and global commodity prices. The policy of developing the manufacturing sector will increase employment. In this regard, it is also necessary to create conditions for improving the skills of employees, developing a culture of regular retraining as a factor of demand in the labor market.

It is necessary to ensure the transition to new resource-saving and environmentally friendly technologies that allow not only the integrated use of natural resources, but also to ensure the restoration of disturbed ecosystems.

For the industrial regions of the country, a long-term priority for sustainable development may be the structural and technological modernization of production, primarily through the creation of new high-tech, knowledge-intensive industries, radical renovation and modernization of existing ones in order to increase the competitiveness of the regions' economies. Stimulating the development of science and innovation will contribute to the complication of their economies and the formation of competitive export-oriented specializations.

The experience of Germany, for example, shows that the basis of

Competitive regional innovation systems are often small and medium-sized enterprises that act as innovative suppliers to large companies and the driving force behind their innovation or technological potential. In many industries (for example, automotive), the main impulses for innovation come from small and medium-sized enterprises that act as development specialists or technology suppliers.

Taking into account the structural features of agricultural and industrial regions, the diversification of their economies based on the accelerated development of manufacturing, agriculture, transport and logistics, and high-value-added services will be of key importance.

In general, in the future, it is important for all regions to pay special attention to the introduction of energy-saving and resource-saving technologies, the development of renewable energy sources, increasing the share of waste recycling and reducing energy intensity. All this will create new jobs with in-demand skills, including for the released personnel from other industries.

Almost all regions have the potential and conditions for tourism development. In this regard, the regions will take measures to increase the tourist and recreational attractiveness of the territories, develop cultural, historical and architectural heritage, create new tourist structures and recreation complexes.

The priorities will be to create conditions for attracting investments and creating new jobs in promising industries, supporting business activity and developing entrepreneurship.

In market conditions, there is a significant increase in the economic importance of agglomerations and cities that have adapted to new economic factors of development and the location of productive forces.

The spatial distribution of productive forces will be increasingly influenced by the factors of urbanization and the concentration of population and companies in agglomerations and cities, which will ensure their greatest efficiency.

The placement of productive forces, industrial, social and other infrastructure in the "growth points" will take into account "classical" economic factors such as the availability of raw materials, remoteness from potential markets, the availability of labor, access to energy, water and transport infrastructure, which will increase the economic connectivity of the territories.

The placement of new large capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries will be more focused on factors related to innovation, knowledge dissemination, access of enterprises to production and digital infrastructure, high-quality specialized human capital, innovation and competence centers.

In addition, the influence of such regional factors of the location of productive forces as the quality of life, ecology, and investment climate will increase, which in the future will play a decisive role in deciding on the location of companies and industries.

In the future, differences in the location of traditional and new productive forces will increase. For example, product development and financing can take place in the headquarters of large cities, and production in small towns. At the same time, some of the production processes as a result of production outsourcing can be located in areas with lower production costs, close to sales markets.

The development of special economic zones and industrial zones, parks will also contribute to the effective deployment of productive forces, production and other infrastructure.

The location of social and other infrastructure will be determined by the population density at "growth points" in both urban and rural areas, taking into account transport accessibility and the demographic forecast until 2030. At the same time, the use of PPPs and the attraction of private investment will expand.

This document provides forecast options for the development of regional industries based on higher-level documents and international experience, which the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and local executive bodies should be guided by. At the same time, local executive bodies will have independence in determining the priorities of competitive economic specialization based on the current socio-economic situation of the country and the region, as well as the external environment.

Territorial and spatial development

Kazakhstan has a great transport and logistics potential. Transcontinental routes can significantly reduce the time needed to transport goods between Asia and Europe.

Rail transport plays a leading role in providing freight transportation both inside and outside the country.

There are 5 international railway transport corridors in the country (the Northern Corridor of the Trans-Asian Railway, the Southern Corridor of the Trans-Asian Railway, the Central Corridor of the Trans-Asian Railway, TRACECA, and North-South).

Measures for the development of the railway industry in the future will be aimed at the construction of railway sections to provide new shortest routes for the transportation of goods through the territory of Kazakhstan, as well as to increase the competitiveness of transport corridors and the transport complex as a whole in the system of Eurasian communication routes.

In the future, rail transport will retain a leading role in providing freight transportation both within the country and in export destinations. The priority will be the development of existing and construction of new railways connecting the regions and being part of the international transit corridors passing through the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the future, until 2030, it is planned to implement a project to build a bypass railway line bypassing the Almaty hub with the Zhetygen - Kazbek Bek connection.

Highways will have a significant impact on the development of the country's regional economies and the realization of transit potential. The Western Europe-Western China international transport corridor will play a key role in increasing transit flows.

The development of transit and transport potential will be facilitated by the operation of the transport and logistics hub of the Khorgos - Eastern Gate Special Economic Zone, connecting China, Central Asia and the Middle East. The growth of trade turnover from China will increase the importance of the Khorgos - Eastern Gate Special Economic Zone as a "dry port".

Currently, there are 6 transport corridors in Kazakhstan (Tashkent - Shymkent - Taraz - Bishkek - Almaty - Khorgos, Shymkent - Kyzylorda - Aktobe - Uralsk - Samara, Almaty- Karaganda - Astana - Petropavlovsk, Astrakhan - Atyrau - Aktau - gr. Turkmenistan", "Omsk - Pavlodar - Semey - Maykapshagai", "Astana - Kostanay - Chelyabinsk - Yekaterinburg"),

The main task for the future will be to improve and maintain the technical parameters of roads in accordance with modern standards, ensuring transport connectivity within regions, between regions and "growth points". The following road development projects will be promising until 2030:

within the framework of the corridor "Center - South" in the direction "Astana - Karaganda - Balkhash - Almaty" in the section "Karaganda - Balkhash - Burylbaytal", "Center - West" in the direction "Astana - Arkalyk- Torgai - Irgiz - Shal kar - Kandyagash" in the section "Astana - Arkalyk - Torgai - Yrgyz - Shal Kar - Kandyagash and Center-East in the direction of Astana - Pavlodar - Semey- Kalbatau - Ust-Kamenogorsk on the Pavlodar-Kalbatau section;

reconstruction and design and survey work on highways of national importance: "Taskesken - Bakhty (border of China)", "Southwest bypass of Astana", "Ust-Kamenogorsk - Altai - Bolypenarymskoye - Katon-Karagai - Rakhmanovskie klyuchi", "Beineu - Akzhigit - border of the Republic of Uzbekistan (to Nukus)", "Shchuchinsk - Zerenda", "Usharal - Dostyk", "Almaty - Ust-Kamenogorsk bypassing the city of Sarqand", "Border of the Russian Federation (to Orsk) - Aktobe - Atyrau - border of the Russian Federation (to Astrakhan)" on the sections "Aktobe - Kandyagash", "Atyrau - border of the Russian Federation (to Astrakhan)", "Karabutak - Komsomolskoye - Denisovka - Rudny - Kostanay", "Merke - Burylbaytal", "Kyzylorda - Pavlodar - Uspenka - border of the Russian Federation", "Astana - Kostanay - Chelyabinsk", "Zhezkazgan - Petropavlovsk", "border of the Russian Federation (to Astrakhan) - Atyrau - border of Turkmenistan" in the section "Zhanaozen - border of Turkmenistan", "Atbasar - Kokshetau", "Uralsk - Atyrau", "Kokshetau - border of the Russian Federation (to Omsk)", "Aktobe - border of the Russian Federation (to Orsk)", "Karaganda - Ayagoz - Tarbagatai - Bugaz", "Chapaevo - Zhalpaktal - Kaztalovka - border of the Russian Federation", "Ust-Kamenogorsk - Semipalatinsk", "Pavlodar - the border of the Russian Federation (to Omsk)" and "Uzynagash - Karasai batyr".

Along with the reconstruction of highways, it is necessary to develop passenger transport infrastructure, including the construction and reconstruction of bus stations, passenger service points and taxi stands.

To reduce the negative impact of erosion processes on the condition of land, it is necessary to apply comprehensive anti-erosion measures (organizational and economic, agrotechnical, forestry, hydraulic engineering), and switch to an adaptive landscape farming system. To improve farming and land management systems, a new round of continuous large-scale integrated soil mapping is needed, taking into account the specifics of regions and a landscape-ecological approach that includes detailed erosion surveys to determine the degree of actual erosion and diagnostics of water and wind erosion processes.

In order to provide the population and industry with agricultural products and, in general, the country's food security, it is necessary to reconstruct and restore irrigated agriculture with the introduction of water-saving technologies in the cultivation and watering of crops.

Environmental protection measures should be provided in the regions to prevent desertification, depletion of groundwater, and protection of agricultural land from erosion and deflation. In order to take measures to improve the state of the soil cover in the country, it is necessary to analyze reliable and regularly updated data on the current state of the soil. Accordingly, it is necessary to monitor soils for all major types of pollutants.

The development of new technologies will allow Kazakhstan in the medium term to include previously undeveloped lands in arid and semi-arid regions into agricultural turnover, as well as increase the overall level of industry productivity.

For the widespread development of the water resources monitoring system, it is necessary to provide for the introduction of additional hydraulic posts at the republic's water bodies.

In order to preserve the operability of the K. Satpayev Canal, an enterprise vital for the republic, it is necessary to carry out its full-fledged reconstruction.

To stabilize the level of Lake Balkhash, it is necessary to provide for the possibility of transferring part of the Karatal River flow and erecting the Uzunaral bridge with a regulating structure, which will reduce the flow of salts from the eastern part of the lake with wind surges.

Reconstruction of large water infrastructure facilities, such as main canals, water reservoirs, and dams, should become a significant lever for reducing losses. For this purpose, a multifactorial survey of all water management and hydro-reclamation infrastructure facilities will be conducted.

The policy on the development of the electric power industry will be aimed at ensuring balanced and sustainable development of electricity generation and transportation. To increase the reliability and stable supply of electricity to the southern regions, the possibility of building new transmission lines for the smooth flow of electricity from northern energy sources to the southern regions, as well as combining the energy system of Western Kazakhstan with the UES of Kazakhstan, will be considered.

Prospective placement of new industrial facilities in the regions should take into account access to energy, water and transport infrastructure.

The small market size, the uncomplicated structure of the economy and the export basket, and the consolidation of raw materials are the main reasons for the weak competitiveness of the Kazakh economy. Therefore, the priority of territorial and spatial development of territories should be to increase the competitiveness of regions through the effective use of existing competitive advantages.

The prospects for the development of territories should be linked to the support of competitive producers, the development of the "economy of simple things", the combination of industrial, innovative and spatial development. The concentration of resources and efforts should take place in separate spatial "growth points" for further development and the creation of specialized factors such as innovation potential, skilled labor, favorable institutional conditions, and so on. The current population structure with a large rural population and a network of many dispersed settlements does not meet the requirements for the formation of a competitive economy. In modern conditions, Kazakhstan needs a compact territorial and spatial structure with pronounced "growth points".

In this regard, the prospective territorial and spatial organization of the country should be aimed at the formation of strong urbanized centers of economic growth in each region of the country. They will serve as "guides" for the region's integration into the global economy. At the national level, it is necessary to continue the formation of "growth points" with integration into the international technological chain.

To increase their potential, it is proposed to form a FGR, which includes large, large cities and a network of settlements from nearby territories. This will create conditions for the implementation of the agglomeration effect at the regional level.

In relation to large cities, it is necessary to pursue a policy of "growth control", that is, to prevent spontaneous urban sprawl, but to ensure an increase in building density, which will also help to increase productivity and reduce infrastructure costs due to "economies of scale".

In this regard, for the capital, cities of republican and regional significance, it is necessary to set population density targets in master plans to prevent urban sprawl.

At the same time, it is necessary to review the master plans of the capital, cities of republican and regional significance, taking into account their alignment with modern approaches to architecture and design of the urban environment. The territory of the cities will be conditionally divided into planning sectors with a population of about 10 thousand people in order to achieve compact urban development. Each planning sector should be provided with the necessary infrastructure facilities and services within the framework of a system of regional standards.

Special attention should be paid to the development of special economic and industrial zones and parks as tools for the spatial development of regions.

To ensure the safety of citizens, it is necessary to limit the development of infrastructure in the direction of facilities intended for the storage of weapons and ammunition of the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

It is necessary to accelerate the creation of integrated suburban transport infrastructure in large and medium-sized cities. Measures should be taken to ensure uninterrupted and safe transport links between cities and towns, optimize tariff policy, and others.

In the future, by 2030, the population's housing supply should increase to 30 m2. At the same time, it is necessary to increase the requirements for the quality, environmental friendliness and energy efficiency of residential buildings, to encourage the use of new construction methods, modern materials, as well as fundamentally different approaches in planning mass development.

Local executive authorities should continue to implement measures to demolish dilapidated and dilapidated housing.

In order to stimulate urbanization in large and medium-sized cities, it is necessary to take measures to form and develop a rental housing market, including by taking measures to renovate areas with dilapidated and dilapidated housing.

In the housing and communal services sector, measures will be aimed at modernizing and repairing utility systems.

Networks of "green zones" in cities and towns should be connected to "green zones", forests and other natural areas in the vicinity, as well as recreation and sports areas. Special attention should be paid to regions where the density and integrity of green spaces is under threat.

There are problems related to solid and liquid waste pollution from mining and processing industries, solid waste recycling and water pollution. Systematic measures are needed to cover cities and adjacent territories with treatment and trapping infrastructure, and industrial waste disposal facilities. At the same time, investments should be actively attracted, in particular through the PPP mechanism.

Issues of ensuring the safety of individuals and society from man-made accidents, catastrophes and natural disasters require special attention through the development of emergency response infrastructure. Further development of settlements should be carried out in strict compliance with regulations and restrictions for urban planning and other activities, with the identification of areas of special regulation, especially in settlements located in areas affected by emergencies.

Development of agglomerations and urbanized areas

Current global trends show that the competitiveness of countries is determined not by regions, but by cities that are closely integrated with global and regional markets. These trends can also be traced in Kazakhstan.

In the future, urban agglomerations will be a key form of territorial and spatial organization of the country until 2030.

The development of agglomerations for the coming decade should be aimed at ensuring the transition to innovative development, their transformation into full-fledged centers of economic growth on a national and global scale, strengthening the parameters of living comfort, quality of life and support for tradable, highly productive sectors. Agglomerations must compete with large agglomerations of the Eurasian space for resources, investments and talents.

The economic positioning of agglomerations should be carried out not only within the country, but at the level of an open system, taking into account global competing cities. For agglomeration centers, the long-term goal should be to enter recognized international ratings on quality of life, such as Mercer25, Economist26 and others.

For the cities of Astana and Almaty, the long-term guideline will be to become one of the world-class cities, and the cities of Shymkent and Aktobe should reach the level of cities in the Eurasian space.

The area of interregional influence of the metropolitan agglomeration includes the Siberian Federal District of the Russian Federation (population in 2017 - 19.3 million people), central and northern Kazakhstan (4.5 million people) with a total population of over 23.8 million people in the covered area. Competing cities with populations of over a million people in the macro-zone are Krasnoyarsk, Novosibirsk, and Omsk. According to the international status and similarity of development conditions for the metropolitan agglomeration, the city of Abu Dhabi can serve as a reference point.

Uzbekistan, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (PRC), Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and some provinces (Northern Pakistan, Northern Afghanistan, and Northern India) are in the zone of interregional influence of the Almaty agglomeration in trade relations with Kazakhstan. The population of Kazakhstan within the macro-zone is 3.7 million people, outside the country - about 48.7 million people. The largest competitor city in terms of population is Urumqi (China). For the Almaty agglomeration, Istanbul and Dubai are the benchmarks for development as the fastest-growing financial centers.

The area of inter-regional influence of the Shymkent agglomeration includes Turkestan, Kyzylorda and Zhambyl regions with a total population of 4.8 million people, as well as Tashkent, Ferghana, Andijan and Namangan regions of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with a total population of 17.6 million people. The population of the Shymkent agglomeration potential interaction zone is 22.4 million people. The main competing cities in terms of crowding are Tashkent and Bishkek. The cities of agrologistic way of life of Parma (Italy) and Guanzhou (China) can become a guideline for economic diversification and increase in added value.

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25 Rating conducted by the international consulting company Mercer on the level of quality of life

26 The Quality of Life Index developed by the Economist

In the zone of influence of the Aktobe agglomeration within the country, in accordance with the importance of the hub of the Western region, Atyrau, West Kazakhstan, Mangystau and Aktobe regions with a population of 2.8 million people are located. The border territories of the Russian Federation with a population of 42 million people remain directly in the zone of possible influence of the Aktobe agglomeration. The competing cities are Kazan, Chelyabinsk, the Volga region and Samara-Tolyatti agglomeration.

A change of approaches in the management of agglomerations is required. It is necessary to have a clear division of functions and specialization between the center and its suburban areas, which will allow simultaneous development of all agglomeration zones. In order to assess the socio-economic development of agglomerations and make managerial decisions, it is necessary to organize statistical accounting for agglomerations. One of the key parameters of future development will be the improvement of the ecological condition of agglomerations.

Strategic goals for the development of agglomerations for the coming decade will be aimed at further concentrating the population in them due to migration growth, their positioning as centers of innovation and competence, improving the environment (reducing harmful emissions, expanding "green zones"), improving the quality of basic and "soft" infrastructure.

Urban planning policy should be consistent with the further trend of urbanization. An increase in the urban population will lead to a significant increase in energy consumption in cities. Taking into account that buildings consume about 50% of the total energy generated, the main focus should be on the design and construction of energy-efficient, energy-efficient buildings. There are other opportunities to improve the sustainability, quality and efficiency of buildings and sites, namely standards and investments. For example, the national Green Star System, developed by the Green Building Council of Australia, is a rating system that helps improve the sustainability of buildings and communities. Architectural and planning policy in cities should be focused on the restoration and preservation of architectural heritage, including historical and cultural monuments and landmarks. In agglomerations, there is a need to build modern waste recycling plants (the Swedish experience).

Metropolitan area. The center of the agglomeration, Astana, will be positioned in the future as an open global city, attractive to talents, with a developed post-industrial economy.

Creative industries, innovations, and export-oriented high-tech goods and services will be developed in the agglomeration.

The production of goods will move to suburban areas, thereby providing jobs and income in the peripheral area.

The formation of an integrated transport infrastructure through the creation of Rapid Bus transport (CAT) and JIPT systems will relieve the streets of the agglomeration center and increase the mobility of the population.

In this regard, the development of social, engineering, and transport infrastructure within the metropolitan area should be carried out ahead of the population growth rate.

As part of the development of the "green economy", there are opportunities to install wind farms and solar cells.

Almaty agglomeration. The city of Almaty will become a catalyst for innovation, benefiting from its inclusion in global value chains, as well as a high concentration of specialized research institutes, international companies and providers.

As a distribution center, Almaty will serve as a hub for the whole of Kazakhstan. The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative will help strengthen the city's role as a hub of the Southern Region.

In the future, it is necessary to take measures to economically strengthen the satellite cities of Almaty (Kaskelen, Talgar, Esik), as well as the cities of Kapshagai, Uzynagash and Shelek settlements. The implementation of the Gate City28 project as a satellite city of Almaty will continue. This will contribute to a more uniform development of the peripheral area of the agglomeration and eliminate excessive congestion in the agglomeration center. The priority of the agglomeration's economic development should be an innovation-oriented economy with an emphasis on exports. In the future, the center of the Almaty agglomeration will be positioned as a financial and business center of regional and international importance, tourism services, science and innovation, logistics and distribution.

To improve transport connectivity in the agglomeration, it is necessary to accelerate the formation of CAT and JIPT integrated with other modes of transport.

It is necessary to take measures to switch cars and public transport to gas, and expand the network of gas stations for electric vehicles.

In order to improve the environmental situation, it is necessary to implement the following measures: the removal of "dirty" industries outside the city, the creation of new parks and recreational areas, and the involvement of secondary municipal waste resources in the economic turnover through solid waste recycling.

It is necessary to develop an action plan for climate and geographical risk management for the city.

Shymkent agglomeration. Shymkent agglomeration will become a transport and logistics hub, the southern gateway of the country, effectively using its transit advantage, with a developed sphere of services, science and innovation, trade and the processing sector, including agriculture. The economic policy of the agglomeration in the future should be aimed at ensuring the sustainability of the economy. For full-fledged development as the center of the agglomeration, it is necessary to develop the service sector in the fields of finance, insurance, telecommunications, tourism, leisure and others.

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27 A satellite city is an urban-type city or settlement that develops near a larger city and tends to it as a center in terms of production, economy, and culture.

28 is one of the cities of the G-4 City project

In order to increase its competitiveness in the future, the agglomeration will face the question of the need to develop the directions of "Industry 4.0". The use of Big Data technologies will increase the efficiency of the urban economy.

In the center of the agglomeration, it is necessary to solve the problems of low availability of doctors and secondary medical professionals, shortage of places in preschool institutions and schools.

It is necessary to carry out a planned urban planning policy based on the principles of compactness of the city and full coverage of engineering and communication infrastructure.

With the growing population of the agglomeration center, measures will be taken to increase the capacity of urban roads, including the construction of interchanges, bypass roads, railway and bus stations. In the future, taking into account the directions of pendulum migration, it is advisable to consider the construction of CAT and LRT systems.

Aktobe agglomeration. The center of the agglomeration, the city of Aktobe, will become a hub city in Western Kazakhstan. Currently, the influence of the trends of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the introduction of "Industry 4.0" practices is increasing in the world. For Aktobe as an industrial city, first of all, automation technologies for routine processes, distributed data registers and online printing will be the most important.

The agglomeration needs to benefit from its geographical location. The implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, as well as the formation of the new North-South economic corridor,29 will help strengthen the role of Aktobe as a growth center and a major transport hub in western Kazakhstan.

The prospective development of the agglomeration will be based on the implementation of large and systemic projects based on a cluster approach in such priority sectors as services, transport and logistics, chemical industry, energy, construction, and agricultural processing.

An increase in the population in the agglomeration can be achieved due to migration growth, primarily from other regions of the western region, which is especially important due to the projected decrease in oil production and the release of labor resources.

29 The Agreement on the North-South international transport corridor was signed by Russia, India and Iran, later joined by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Oman, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Syria, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Ukraine.

The region has transport links with all the centers of economic growth. Strengthening of inter-regional connectivity will be ensured through the reconstruction and upgrading of existing highways of national importance. It is necessary to complete the implementation of such major projects as "Center-West", "Aktobe - Atyrau - Astrakhan", "Aktobe - Khromtau - Karabutak - Ulgaisyn", which will improve the transport and transit potential of the entire Aktobe region.

In order to meet the long-term needs of the economy and the population of the agglomeration with energy resources, it is necessary to build the 3rd line of the gas pipeline branch from Bukhara - Ural to the city of Aktobe.

The city of Aktobe needs to implement the concept of "Smart City" with the introduction of digital technologies in all spheres of life of the population.

It requires the introduction of new approaches in urban planning, providing for the effective development of urban space through the consolidation of buildings. Systematic measures are needed to cover the city and surrounding areas with treatment and trapping infrastructure, industrial waste disposal facilities using "green" technologies. It is necessary to actively use PPP mechanisms.

To realize the competitive advantages of the Aktobe agglomeration, it is necessary to develop tools to attract additional budgetary and extra-budgetary resources. It is important for the agglomeration to ensure the synchronous development of the outskirts of Aktobe city together with the center. In order to diversify the economy of the agglomeration, it is also necessary to pay special attention to the development of special economic and industrial zones, technology commercialization centers to give additional impetus to the development of innovation.

By 2030, it is necessary to implement measures to improve the ecological condition of the territories of all four agglomerations, including the elimination of pollution of water resources and lands with industrial waste and solid waste, and the provision of infrastructure for the separate collection and processing of solid waste in all district centers within the agglomerations. Local executive bodies also need to carry out sanitary cleaning of territories on an ongoing basis to improve the state of the environment using the results of space monitoring of waste disposal sites.

Formation of the FGR

The development policy of the FGR until 2030 will be based on the main factors affecting regional development: migration,

managed urbanization, digitalization, Smart City, inclusive development.

The formation of a FGR around regional centers and adjacent suburban areas with socio-economic ties to cities will be carried out on the principle of "people to infrastructure."

It is necessary to take measures to ensure the safety of living in the FGR: mandatory lighting of streets, courtyards, pedestrian paths and the installation of video surveillance cameras in educational, medical, cultural and sports organizations. The introduction of Smart City technology in urban infrastructure management will improve the comfort and safety of the population, as well as lead to the rational use of urban resources.

By 2030, the level of urbanization is expected to increase to 65%. The most urbanized regions will be Karaganda region (85.4%), Pavlodar region (78.3%), Aktobe region (75.7%).

In the centers of the FGR, it is necessary to organize the activities of branches of leading national universities to ensure the development of human capital, training in sought-after specialties, mainly of a technological orientation, as well as the modernization of scientific and educational infrastructure. The FGR centers should become points of attraction for young and creative talents.

In order to improve the quality of healthcare, it is necessary to open branches of leading republican clinics in the centers of the FGR. To increase the index of economic complexity, it is necessary to restore scientific and technical potential in the manufacturing industry.

To develop the "economy of simple things", it is necessary to promote business initiatives and stimulate the growth of investments in fixed assets of SMEs.

In order to develop entrepreneurship, it is necessary to increase the amount of funds allocated to support SMEs from the local budget.

The stimulation of the agglomeration effect should be achieved by preventing the expansion of the area of the FGR city centers with an increase in settlement density.

It is necessary to modernize and strengthen existing engineering and protective structures or provide for additional construction of new protective structures.

The development of the transport infrastructure of the FGR should be aimed at strengthening the logistical potential of the regions through the connectivity of roads and railways, maximizing the benefits of international transport corridors, developing a transport hub and related infrastructure. It is necessary to support the development of services, to stimulate cooperation between small industries and large enterprises. The emergence of new industries will diversify the economy of cities, and will also contribute to the development of the service sector. It is expected that the FGR will be connected to the hub cities, and medium and small towns within the regions will be connected to the centers of the FGR. The experience of OECD countries shows that urban policy is an essential source of development and a tool for reducing inequality.

It is necessary to modernize existing sewage treatment plants or provide for the construction of new ones, and develop a culture of separate waste collection. In order to improve the environment, it is planned to increase the volume of forest reproduction and afforestation, create "green zones" around the FGR, and develop private afforestation.

In the FGR with its center in the city of Semey, as well as in areas affected by the activities of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, attention should be paid to the development of healthcare, labor protection and social protection. In order to ensure the interaction of settlements within the FGR, it is necessary to organize the accounting of socio-economic data reflecting the activities of the FGR.

Development of mono- and small towns

The development of mono- and small towns in the coming decade will be based on the realization of their economic potential. Special attention should be paid to the development of mono- and small towns that are part of the zone of influence of agglomerations and FGR.

In order to provide basic services and benefits, the uninterrupted operation of energy, heat and water supply infrastructure facilities must be ensured.

It is necessary to take measures to increase human capital, which will increase the demand for personnel in the labor markets of large cities.

It is necessary to implement measures to diversify the urban economy, increase financing for exploration, and identify promising mineral deposits located near mono- and small towns.

The development of remote mono- and small towns will mainly focus on providing basic goods and services. The development of the SME sector and the creation of new jobs unrelated to the activities of the dominant industry remain relevant for all mono- and small towns. Strengthening the regional network of small and medium-sized enterprises through innovation and increased knowledge about processes and technology is key to reducing dependence on city-forming enterprises. In addition, outsourcing of auxiliary industries will stimulate the diversification of the economy of mono- and small towns and increase the level of Kazakhstani content. Given the different levels of socio-economic development for mono- and small towns, it is advisable to develop a differentiated package of support measures.

In general, a differentiated package of measures for cities, depending on their potential for socio-economic development, should be aimed at:

1) support of projects aimed at increasing transport accessibility, developing the road network within agglomerations to form (facilitate) the "pendulum" labor migration of the population;

2) development of social and recreational (educational, health, cultural, sports, leisure and recreation facilities, parks and entertainment areas) infrastructure;

3) support for SMEs, including the development of new products and their production, improving enterprise management and increasing human resources;

4) diversification and restructuring of single-industry enterprises through incentive measures for technology transfer;

5) development of small enterprises with a high level of detailed and technological specialization (production of components and parts, building materials from local raw materials, consumer goods).

To maintain current employment in cities with low socio-economic potential, it is necessary to take measures to develop small businesses.

In addition, a number of cities do not meet the criterion of a city in terms of population. In this regard, it is necessary to consider the issue of their transfer to the status of SNP. Such cities currently include Zhanatas, Arkalyk, Sergeyevka, Derzhavinsk, Stepnyak, Temir and Zhem, which have low socio-economic development potential. Approaches to the development of these settlements will be reviewed in accordance with regional standards of quality of life. One of the support tools may be to facilitate the voluntary resettlement of the population to regional centers of economic growth.

In addition, changing the status of a city will require amendments to the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan "On the Administrative-Territorial Structure of the Republic of Kazakhstan" regarding the revision of quantitative and qualitative criteria for classifying settlements as urban and rural, as well as criteria for determining the mono-profile of cities.

For mono- and small towns with a population of 50,000 or more that are not part of the FGR, it is necessary to take concrete measures to diversify the economy, since job cuts at 1-2 city-forming enterprises may lead to a significant increase in unemployment.

Rural development

Rural development policy in the coming decade will be based on the following principles: ensuring basic standards of quality of life; encouraging voluntary resettlement; efficiency of investments in infrastructure development; rational use of land and water resources; environmental safety.

Rural development will be aimed at ensuring regional standards of quality of life by enlarging rural districts. The reassignment and consolidation of small-scale social enterprises will improve the quality and accessibility of basic social and public services through the implementation of the "people to infrastructure" model. For these purposes, it is planned to develop basic SNPS. These settlements will be centers for the provision of public and social services and will have a sufficiently developed social and engineering infrastructure to ensure regional standards of quality of life according to the "people to infrastructure" model.

The definition of reference SNPs within the framework of the Auyl - El 6eciri project presupposes their selection in accordance with the potential of socio-economic development. The main criteria will be demographic trends, transport accessibility, the degree of remoteness from sales markets, etc. The further development of the SNP should be considered taking into account demographic trends. By 2030, the rural population will be

For the further development of the border regions, it is necessary to attract investments in the infrastructure of the support SNPs. Special attention should be paid to the development of 8 small towns (Zharkent, Zaisan, Saryagash, Shardara, Shemonaiha, Mamlyutka, Bulaevo, Zhetysai). In the Almaty region, the implementation of measures for the development of the city of Nurkent will continue as part of the development of the Khorgos - Eastern Gate special economic zone.

The development of the infrastructure of border strongholds and towns should be carried out in conjunction with the development of border infrastructure. Ensuring a basic level of quality of life should cover not only the population of border settlements, but also the military personnel of the border guard service and their families.

It is necessary to increase the infrastructural potential of the border regions as transport and logistics centers (hereinafter referred to as TLCs). The construction of border TLCs is necessary at checkpoints or near the territory of checkpoints on the Kazakh section of the customs border of the Customs Union.

The priority tasks for the development of TLC in Kazakhstan in the border regions will be:

realization of transit potential; development of passenger transportation;

development of exports and domestic economic needs.

Logistics facilities need to be differentiated by the level of service of goods flows and the operation of transport systems in order to form a coherent structure of the logistics system in the border area of the country. When forming public policy, Kazakhstan should be considered as an open system. It is necessary to consider the competitiveness of the regions of Kazakhstan on a broader scale as competitiveness among the regions of the EAEU, the Northwestern part of China and the countries of Central Asia.

All measures should be accompanied by symmetrical (with the largest cities of neighboring states) development of the country's border cities (the principle of competing cities). The border regions should be positioned as the most important zones of international economic cooperation. In the border territories with the potential to participate in cross-border trade, it is advisable to consider the creation of international centers for cross-border cooperation by analogy with the International Center for Cross-Border Cooperation "Khorgos".

In this regard, the prospects for the development of border territories will be associated with the use of a wide range of measures, such as targeted subsidies to commodity producers in order to increase their competitiveness within and outside the EAEU, ensure access to credit resources for enterprises and reduce the burden of servicing them; provide additional tax incentives to the non-resource sector; create infrastructure to attract investment. Further, it is necessary to support the development of cooperative cooperation in the industry of the EAEU countries. To do this, the EAEU countries need to implement the following measures::

to organize platforms for finding partners, conducting negotiations and concluding preliminary agreements (subcontracting exchanges);

to provide advisory support to industrial enterprises in search of cooperation partners.

Based on the implementation of major joint projects, Kazakhstan needs to integrate into the balance of resource use and the value chain of the Russian Federation, China and the countries of Central Asia.

In this regard, it is necessary to step up production and infrastructure projects in the border areas as tools to enhance interstate cooperation.

2.3. Definition of criteria and requirements of the Regional Standards System

The system of regional standards will contribute to the formation of an inclusive society in which equality of opportunities for the entire population of the country will be ensured.

When developing indicators for regional standards, indicators of various indices characterizing the quality of life were taken into account - the OECD's Better life Index30, MERCER's Quality of Life in Cities around the World, and the United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index31.

The purpose of the regional standards system is to establish the basic requirements that the living environment in rural and urban areas must meet.

Each level of administrative-territorial units should have its own basic regional standards. At the same time, it is necessary to build redistributive processes of inter-budgetary relations in order to reduce gaps in the availability of benefits and services of the regional standards system between regions and within regions.

__________________________

30 Index developed by the OECD to compare well-being in different countries on 11 aspects

31 Human Capital Development Index, developed by the United Nations

Section 3. Forecast parameters of the country's development

The calculation of the forecast parameters of the country's development is based on the indicators of the Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025, approved by Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated February 15, 2018 No. 636, taking into account the Strategic Map of key national indicators.

A total of 9 forecast parameters for the development of the country's regions until 2030 are envisaged.

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1) the growth of the average per capita real monetary income of the population*, % increase from the level of 2016

2) the share of SMEs in GDP*, % of GVA to GDP

3) provision of housing for the population**, m2 per person

4) the level of urbanization at the beginning of the year, %

2019

2030

2019

2030

2019

2030

2019

2030

Republic of Kazakhstan

122,9

28,2

22,4

58,2

Akmolinskaya

180,5

28,6

22,8

29,0

47,2

54,8

Aktobe

10,4

150

19,9

22,7

28,9

70,7

75,7

Almaty

16,7

226,3

28,5

19,4

24,6

22,4

33,4

Atyrau

-2,4

56,5

22,1

28,4

52,1

56,8

East Kazakhstan

12,3

134,4

14,9

26,6

61,6

69,6

Zhambylskaya

7,8

20,1

17,1

21,6

39,7

48,1

West Kazakhstan

2,8

76,8

42,5

21,2

26,8

52,0

59,6

Karagandinskaya

8,8

91,8

13,8

30,4

79,6

85,4

Kostanay

16,3

189

22,8

29,0

54,5

61,6

Kyzylorda

7,4

87,9

14,5

20,5

26,0

44,3

51,7

Mangystau

0,6

176,5

19,4

23,5

29,7

40,0

51,1

Pavlodarskaya

6,2

131,9

18,3

22,6

26,7

70,6

78,3

North Kazakhstan Region

6,9

113,7

26,3

29,4

27,9

45,6

51,7

Turkestan

0,2

95,5

23,2

18,1

24,3

19,6

27,6

Astana city

0,5

112,1

48,7

32,6

42,2

100

the city of Almaty

2,3

87,1

36,3

28,9

36,6

100

Shymkent city

0,4

89,7

32,7

22,1

29,6

100

* Calculated using the moving average method multiplied by the growth rate up to 2050 according to the data of the Strategic Map-2025

** The forecasted housing stock is calculated in proportion to the fact by region

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5) providing broadband access to the Internet SNP***, units.

6) the proportion of highways of regional and district significance in good and satisfactory condition*, %

2019

2030

2019

2030

Republic of Kazakhstan

685

1250

71,0

97,0

Akmolinskaya

74,3

98,3

Aktobe

56,0

97,6

Almaty

223

81,0

100,0

Atyrau

57,0

95,4

East Kazakhstan

111

81,0

98,5

Zhambylskaya

119

85,0

100,0

West Kazakhstan

31,0

75,7

Karagandinskaya

80,0

100,0

Kostanay

69,0

98,0

Kyzylorda

65,0

95,0

Mangystau

93,0

100,0

Pavlodarskaya

82,6

100,0

North Kazakhstan Region

65,0

99,5

Turkestan

286

305

74,1

100,0

Astana city

the city of Almaty

Shymkent city

* Calculated using the moving average method multiplied by the growth rate up to 2050 according to the data of the Strategic Map-2025

*** Source: Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan

7) The share of electricity from renewable energy sources (except large hydroelectric power plants), % of total production should reach 2.3% by 2019, 10% by 2030%****;

**** Source: Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

8) The "GRP per capita development gap between regions" * is calculated according to the methodology specified in the Strategic Plan-2025 (8 regions with maximum values for 9 regions with minimum values) and will be 3.2 times by 2019 and 2.6 times by 2030.;

9) The "Share of waste recycling" **** is expected to reach 14% of the total volume of solid waste generated by 2019, and 40% by 2030.

The institutional scheme of interrelation of documents of territorial and spatial development

The implementation of the Forecast Scheme will be carried out through the implementation of lower-level documents of the state planning system: state programs, strategic plans.

government agencies, territorial development programs, and development strategies for national management holdings, national holdings, and national companies with government participation in the authorized capital.

To build a vertical line of documents for territorial and spatial development, it is necessary to ensure methodological continuity of the "Forecast scheme - State Program for the Development of Regions - Territorial Development Program". At the same time, a special functional role is assigned to the State Program for the Development of Regions, which should, taking into account the needs and potential of the regions, according to the matrix scheme, fix the distribution of budget funds within the framework of other state programs in order to avoid imbalances in financing between regions. The state program for the development of regions should become a coordinating document in terms of taking into account the impact of various sectoral indicators and indicators on reducing gaps in ensuring regional standards of quality of life for the population.

Spatial planning depends on the well-established interaction of documents across the entire vertical.

Ultimately, territorial development programs are of particular importance, as they affect a specific beneficiary. Local executive bodies should plan their activities based on priorities and initiatives of higher-level documents, coordinate planning with neighboring regions, and involve the local population based on broad consultations.

Within the framework of the bottom-up system, all initiatives emanating from the regions should be taken into account, and they, in turn, should receive methodological and institutional support from the center.

A single database of information for spatial management

The spatial and statistical data infrastructure is a prerequisite for the development of strategic and programmatic documents for spatial development.

Improvements in territorial data and statistical accounting are needed to improve the quality of regional analysis. The availability of territorial data can help unlock the potential of regions.

More statistics are currently needed at the local level. Current data is available only for administrative regions and does not always correspond to the structures of labor markets and other aspects of daily life. Accordingly, there is a need for statistical data on FGR, cities, and agglomerations.

Data for spatial planning purposes should be contained in the National Spatial Data Infrastructure.

By 2021, the Government for Citizens State Corporation will complete the development of three projects within the framework of the Digital Kazakhstan State Program - the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NIPD), the National Geographic Information System, and the Unified Information System for Cadastral Registration and Registration of Real Estate Rights.

The use of NIPD data will greatly contribute to a better understanding of the spatial organization of territories and the operation of markets, especially the housing and labor markets, as well as transport infrastructure and trends in their development.

Spatial data infrastructure is actively used abroad in the process of spatial planning.

National Spatial Data Infrastructure is widely used in the spatial development of the USA, Japan, China, Australia, Canada, India, Malaysia, and the European Union.

Using the NIPD allows you to:

improve the quality of decisions based on in-depth analytical information processing;

to predict and model the consequences of management decisions based on the use of information and analytical systems;

to increase the investment attractiveness of the regions;

to prevent emergencies and effectively eliminate their consequences;

effectively use land resources and increase agricultural productivity;

to ensure more effective budget planning by consolidating complete information on the availability, extent, condition of engineering networks, social infrastructure facilities and their alignment with the demographic forecast.

Section 4. Schemes of prospective development of regions

President

Republic of Kazakhstan

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